Roughly three in 10 Americans believe that only Donald Trump (35%), only Joe Biden (30%) or none of the major party candidates (29%) will perform well, according to global analysis and consulting firm Gallup.
Although there was little doubt at the start of 2024 that former US President Donald Trump would become the Republican Party’s nominee, he clinched the nomination in a Gallup poll conducted from 1 to 20 March after gaining enough delegates in the 12 March election.
Nikki Haley, his latest Republican rival, suspended her campaign last week. Joe Biden also secured the Democratic Party’s nomination on 12 March, setting the stage for a re-match of the 2020 presidential election.
When the incumbent presidents ran in 2004 and 2012, between 8% and 17% of US adults did not believe in the ability of either candidate to become a good president. In 2008, when the race was open, between 18% and 19% felt the same way. Gallup did not track the figure in 2016, when both non-incumbent candidates, Trump and Hillary Clinton, were unpopular.
77% of Republicans believe only Trump would be a good president, whereas 71% of Democrats say the same about Biden. Meanwhile, about one in five Republicans and Democrats believe neither candidate would actually become a good president. Far fewer argued that either neither candidates nor an opposition party’s nominee would be a great president.
At the same time, 42% plurality of independents, the largest political bloc in the US, do not think any of the candidates would demonstrate a good presidency.
According to Gallup, nearly half of those surveyed (46%) indicate they are likely to vote for a third-party candidate, with 17% expecting they will not cast a vote. Another 33% say they are likely to vote for Biden or Trump based on other factors.
Americans find themselves in an uncommon situation this year, choosing between two presidential candidates who have already held the nation’s highest office. While most Republicans and Democrats believe that their own party’s candidate is the only one who would make a good president, most independents think that neither Biden nor Trump would be.
Those who don’t believe either of the two candidates will succeed in the White House are more likely to indicate they would vote for a third-party candidate than accept Trump or Biden. Several third-party candidates are currently in the race, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein.
