Recent revelations of corruption in Ukraine show a scandal at the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence where 100,000 mortar shells worth about $40 million were paid for but never delivered, but also that Ukraine has a long way to go in the fight against corruption.
Of course, it’s obvious that fighting corruption for the sake of membership in Europe means a lot to Ukraine’s president, but on the other side, it’s another and highlighted ammunition scandal that only speaks to how widespread and normal corruption has become, that high-ranking defence ministry officials and arms supplier company executives are colluding to deprive their country of vital military supplies at a time when it is in an existential crisis.
Ukraine has survived two years of violent conflict (albeit solely with Western support), but these high-profile scandals and the general perception that Ukraine is still struggling with day-to-day corruption have become a more serious existential threat at a time of Ukraine’s extreme dependence on Western supplies, which, as recent events have shown, are becoming increasingly problematic to obtain.
Hungary and Slovakia, AfD and the Republicans in the US use undeniable corruption as one of the arguments against further aid to Ukraine, as no one wants the aid supplied for further struggles to serve to fill the pockets of corrupt officials.
Such views further reinforce the sense of defeatism since Ukraine’s actions on the battlefield in 2023 have failed to fulfil either Kyiv’s aspirations or the West’s expectations.
In addition to the corruption issue, even more alarming is the Ukrainian leader himself, Volodymyr Zelensky. The ongoing corruption scandals that the public is learning about are undermining one of his key campaign promises in 2019 to eradicate corruption.
The controversial debate on military strategy between the country’s political and military leadership is becoming increasingly public and uncomfortable for Zelensky. Of particular importance now is the future military role of General Valery Zaluzhny, who we wrote about earlier. No doubt the president offered Zaluzhny a new role as defence adviser, but the military commander is known to have declined. Relations between the two have soured in recent months, partly because Ukraine’s 2023 counter-offensive did not make significant gains on the battlefield.
The president had earlier lashed out at his top general for publicly stating that the war was in a “stalemate” when it actually was; he should have taken action and treated the top commander with respect, but not “swearing” over what was happening on the battlefield.
Zaluzhny’s dismissal may also be related to the personal ambitions of the top general, as he wanted to go into politics and run for president against Zelensky. It is noteworthy that a December poll showed that while 62 percent of Ukrainians said they trusted Zelensky, 88 percent said they trusted Zaluzhny.
Taken together, the corruption scandals and the split at the top of the Ukrainian government will do nothing to restore or maintain Western confidence that Ukraine has a credible path to avoid defeat, let alone achieve victory. Support for European and transatlantic integration is likely to remain high, but Zelensky will no longer be perceived as its only or most likely supporter, so the dialogue will be with another leader.
Corruption will not be able to completely destroy Ukraine, but it can play a detrimental role in the peak of war.
