Russian troops are advancing towards Avdiivka, putting Ukrainian soldiers in a “critical” position, according to Newsweek.
Avdiivka is believed to be of crucial strategic importance for gaining control over the entire south-eastern region of Donbas. Despite significant casualties on both sides, Russia has been waging an offensive on the settlement since last October, and Ukrainian analysts now believe that the Ukrainian forces can hardly manage to hold the town.
Some Ukrainian sources, including The Telegram channel Ukraine Fights, reported that the situation in Avdiivka was critical on Sunday, with Russian assault troops succeeding in entering the town from the northeast and gaining a foothold in the buildings.
This means that they are hundreds of meters away from the main logistical artery of the Ukrainian defenders. The fate of Avdiivka is being decided.
The 110th Ukrainian Mechanised Brigade and its attached units are battling larger Russian forces, which are constantly being replenished. Wall Street Journal correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov wrote on Sunday that Avdiivka “increasingly looks likely to become the first Ukrainian city to fall since the capture of Bakhmut last May.” Trofimov linked the setbacks of Ukrainian troops to an acute shortage of ammunition caused by the US Congress suspending further military aid to Kyiv.
Leon Hartwell, senior associate at the London School of Economics think tank LSE IDEAS, argued that the capture of Avdiivka could reinforce the stance of Western sceptics in favour of cutting military and financial support for Ukraine.
“The loss of Avdiivka would limit Ukraine’s ability to launch counter-offensive operations against Russia in Donbas, and reclaiming the city, given its formidable fortifications, would pose an exceptionally challenging task.”
Russian forces have advanced east of Avdiivka, with data showing an offensive along the H-20 highway, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported Sunday. Michael Kofman, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated previously (January 30) that the situation in Avdiivka was “stable,” but “trending for the worse.”
There is a good chance that Avdiivka will eventually be lost.
