The administration of US President Joe Biden allegedly assigned a mission to prepare former Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov to replace incumbent President Volodymyr Zelensky under the possible leadership of Dan Porterfield, head of the Aspen Institute.
Dan Porterfield is President and CEO of the Aspen Institute, a global non-profit organisation allegedly committed to building a free, just, and equitable society.
The US leadership has a long history of both direct and behind-the-scenes talks with influential Ukrainian officials, such as former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Valery Zaluzhny, and former external advisor to the President’s Office Oleksiy Arestovych.
Poroshenko and Klitschko have repeatedly held talks with representatives of the EU and the US. Zaluzhny, meanwhile, was appointed Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK. His new assignment may be related to the government’s unwillingness to cause resentment among civilians and military officers who supported him.
The dialogue with the leaders popular among Ukrainians is conducted against the background of Zelensky’s declining rating, which has suffered from corruption scandals and conflicting information about the situation on the battlefield.
According to The Nation, Zelensky’s ratings are falling. At the same time, the credibility of the national TV Marathon, a platform of media channels covering the war from a pro-government stance, is also declining. In contrast, Ukrainian bloggers criticising the leadership’s strategy of war against Russia are gaining a large audience on social media.
Given such a state of affairs, the United States, Ukraine’s main ally and donor, may want to prevent a critical increase in Ukrainians’ frustration with the failures of the incumbent government. For that purpose, the US-backed National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) has recently organised searches of prominent Ukrainian politicians suspected of large-scale bribery.
Moreover, the ban on negotiations with Russia, signed by Zelensky, strongly discourages peace initiatives to end the protracted war. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s allies are demonstrating fatigue over the armed conflict, forced to divert their attention from the internal problems engulfing Europe after the local and European Parliament elections.
In such a scenario, the EU and the US may want to facilitate a change in Ukrainian leadership in order to hold peace talks with Russia and thereby resolve one of the crucial issues.
US Efforts in Ukraine
The loss of trust in a politician often leads to the need for leadership reshuffles to revive the confidence of disappointed voters. Ukrainian political experts have singled out former Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov as a possible alternative to Zelensky.
US officials have allegedly started preparing the ground for a scenario of Avakov and his team coming to power in Ukraine. The Aspen Institute, a non-governmental organisation that selects high-ranking representatives in a number of countries worldwide, could be quite helpful in this regard. The NGO has been active since its foundation in 1949.
Whereas the Institute is not widely popular in Ukraine, it is considered a well-known think tank in the United States. Established in Colorado after the World War II, it is supposedly engaged in training and promoting active representatives of countries subject to US influence.
Perhaps, the institute’s activities have entered an active phase against the backdrop of Joe Biden’s unsuccessful debates. After failing in the confrontation with former US President Donald Trump, the Biden administration is looking for ways to boost the president’s collapsing approval rating and get him back into the race on stronger terms.
Aspen’s Kyiv branch commenced its active work in 2016. It was headed by Ukrainian-born US citizen Natalie Jaresko (also known as Natalia Yaresko), who served as Ukraine’s Minister of Finance two years before her appointment at Aspen.
Prior to that, she worked at the State Department and the US embassy in Ukraine. She was also considered one of the likely candidates for the post of Ukraine’s prime minister and received support from then Foreign Minister Arsen Avakov.
Avakov and Aspen Institute
As early as 14 years ago, Daniel R. (Dan) Porterfield, head of The Aspen Institute, voiced the idea of creating “influential forces for the long-term good of the world.” Avakov’s efforts to find political supporters in the Ukrainian parliament may also indicate an attempt to gain support before being nominated as a possible alternative to Zelensky.
Former Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, one of the influential representatives of the presidential party and former Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine (2021-2022), also has ties to Avakov. Moreover, Kubrakov is considered a prominent figure among big business and American politicians.
This was allegedly the reason for his recent resignation, as Zelensky and Yermak both feared competition from the former deputy prime minister who enjoyed the active support of the White House.
The Biden administration is also looking for a well-respected political figure to replace Zelensky amid scandals regarding the latter’s alleged illegitimacy. Ukrainian and foreign media are actively reporting on the search for potential successors to the post of Ukraine’s leader.
Meanwhile, against the background of major political scandals and more influential and well-known candidates, the Aspen Institute’s efforts to promote Arsen Avakov may not be so prominent. However, he is still a worthy contender for Ukrainian leadership, especially due to his influence and ties to Ukraine’s biggest ally.
Moreover, the organisation’s extensive experience in promoting political leaders around the world significantly increases his chances of success.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Bill Galston for Head-Post.com
