With the second round of a snap general election starting in France this week, there are a number of major risks on the political and economic horizon that will have significant implications for Europe and Ireland, The Irish Times reports.
In an election year around the world, France has suddenly become a source of political drama as Emmanuel Macron’s plan to throw a grenade into the political stage backfired. He had hoped to transform the centre of French politics but instead evacuated it.
Against the backdrop of high voter turnout in the first round, he has re-energised the extreme left, which is building a radical coalition with other left-wing parties, while bringing the extreme right into the antechamber of government. Macron has remade the French political system for the second time.
Very few French people wanted this election, and the timing of it – the holiday season and the Olympics – could not have been more divisive. With the results of the first round clearly favouring the far-right Rassemblement Nationale (Rassemblement Nationale Nationale), Macron is a major loser and “macronism” (loud speeches and big ideas) is likely over.
Scenarios for run-off elections
Two possible courses of action are now taking shape. The first is a minority government led by the RN, aided by various right-wingers (mostly former Republicans). The centrist and extreme left parties are now engaging in a free vote to try and limit the number of seats the RN gets.
The other scenario, given the obvious short-lived nature of an extreme left leaning coalition, is some form of technocratic government. Both scenarios carry the risk of a constitutional crisis and the possibility of political unrest and industrial action.
While Labour seems likely to bring a steady, dull calm to British politics, the contagion of political chaos seems to have spread to Paris, and neither of the above two scenarios is likely to lead to an orderly Assembly. The extreme left and the extreme right are very hostile to each other, and neither has the patience for real technocrats, and the feeling is likely to be mutual.
In this context, it is hard to imagine any meaningful politics in France in the coming year, and it is very much the start of the 2027 presidential race.
Implications of the first round for Europe
Macron has done an unusual thing for a French president – he has, perhaps like David Cameron and his successors in the Tory party, done a disservice to his country. Many believe his decision to call the election has opened up a series of tail risks for France and Europe, and this is where the implications for Ireland lie.
France, like the UK, has a debt-to-GDP ratio that, with the exception of the period after the world wars, has not been this high since the Napoleonic Wars. This and a large budget deficit set the stage for financial disaster and a more difficult relationship with Brussels.
Both the RN and the New Popular Front harbour a deep antipathy to the English-speaking commercial and financial world, and neither has a good relationship with the European political “centre” that would allow them to work easily with the EU and its institutions.
Thus, there is a growing risk of financial stress in the eurozone, although we are probably not talking about a full-blown crisis. In this context, a government with the right-wing at the helm may prefer to put fiscal policy on autopilot and focus on identity, immigration and security issues, which in itself would be controversial.
Lessons for Ireland
Emmanuel Macron’s likely decline as a political force will be felt across Europe. He has been a driving force behind the idea of “strategic autonomy” and has provoked the security debate with comments such as “Nato is brain dead”. A decline in his authority will make the EU/NATO security outlook less coherent, especially if he heads a Unification government.
In addition, the centre of European political power may now shift towards countries such as Poland, while Italy and Greece are also likely to become more influential. Of particular concern is the possibility that relations with Germany could deteriorate if a Unity government is formed.
There are perhaps two further lessons for Ireland. The first is that the country has one of the best democratic systems in the world, even if this is not always accurately reflected in public discourse. The lesson is that democracy needs to be nurtured and protected, and that the unfriendliness that has crept into public life is a negative phenomenon.
The second problem is that Ireland is increasingly plagued by the problems that have plagued France for some time: the inability to accommodate large numbers of immigrants, the demands of a highly dangerous international security environment and the appeal of populism. These problems need to be tackled in a structured way, with a clear political vision.
Ireland as a state is still attuned to a globalised world, but as de-globalisation progresses, these negative trends will increase. It is therefore wise to view the events in France as a harbinger or warning for the future rather than an outlier. The challenge is to begin to build the infrastructure – defence and security being one example – that will enable Ireland to be resilient to the growing challenges of a more chaotic world.
