The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) operation in the Kursk region is entering its third day, with troops drawn into hostilities, heavily slowed down and logistic chains stretched. Meanwhile, the Russian Armed Forces are pulling large troops into the area of fighting. Evacuations are underway in Ukraine’s border region of Sumy, where the offensive originated. The aims of the operation to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position are becoming increasingly vague.
Current situation
On the fourth day of the operation to penetrate Russian territory, the AFU found itself stalled within the framework of its breakthrough of the first two days. With Russian reserves coming up, the Ukrainian forces sharply lost the pace of their advance and began to entrench themselves, which could mean a possible cancellation of further active offensives.
The Russian Defence Ministry listed the settlements in the Kursk region where the AFU’s vehicles that had broken through were struck. Among these towns and settlements are Daryino, Gogolevka, Melovoi, Nikolsky, Sudzha, Yuzhny, and Martynovka.
The entrenchment of Ukrainian forces means that Russian soldiers will have to dislodge the AFU from Russian-seized towns and villages, inevitably resulting in infrastructure damage.
The alleged Ukrainian plan in creating tension has forced Russian reserves into the region, but the redeployment of forces has not affected other parts of the front, according to reports. The absence of a Ukrainian offensive in the Rylsk area also suggests that the command cannot afford a large-scale offensive operation with combined forces. In such a state of affairs, Ukrainian troops may not reach Kurchatov.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held an operational meeting with permanent members of the Security Council. Military sources reported to him that the situation was “under control.” Moreover, Russian media report that large reserves had been mobilised to the combat zone.
Vague goals
Meanwhile, CNN reports that Ukraine’s decision to move most of its scarce military resources across the border into Russia marks a moment of desperation or inspiration for Ukraine. It could also herald a new phase of war.
While Putin has called it a “major provocation,” some Ukrainian observers openly questioned the appropriateness of the gamble. Sudzha, which is now at least partially under Ukrainian control, is close to a Russian gas terminal. It is key to Russian gas supplies through Ukraine to Europe. As of Thursday, however, there was no public indication that gas supplies had been affected.
For the first time in the entire war, talk of negotiations has begun. Russia may be invited to the next peace conference hosted by Ukraine and its allies. The proportion of Ukrainians who approve of the talks, though still a minority, is growing slightly. Meanwhile, the threat of a Donald Trump presidency, which has promised to influence the situation in Ukraine, looms over Kyiv.
With the prospect of a negotiated resolution now less distant, both sides will try to improve their positions on the battlefield before coming to the negotiating table, according to CNN. This “marks a rare and significant gamble with Kyiv’s limited resources, and so may herald the Ukrainians’ belief that greater change is ahead.”
However, Kyiv’s hopes of consolidating the negotiating positions may not be justified. According to Forbes, up to 10,000 AFU soldiers with NATO equipment may become encircled in the Kursk region.
That the Ukrainians are pouring significant resources into this invasion doesn’t guarantee its success, of course. There might be 10,000 Ukrainian troops in and around in the invasion zone. The Russian Northern Grouping of Forces, which fights along the border zone, has around 48,000 troops.
Ukrainian brigades deliberately crossed the border in areas where the Northern Grouping of Forces was weakest, the Ukrainian Centre for Defence Strategies noted.
If the Russians move fast, they could blunt or even reverse the Ukrainians’ gains. (…) There’s still a significant chance the Ukrainian operation backfires on its planners. If the Ukrainian brigades outrun their artillery, air defenses and logistics, they could find themselves alone and outgunned deep inside Kursk Oblast [region]. Kyiv is risking thousands of troops it can’t easily replace.
Military sources published footage of two KUB kamikaze drones hitting the firing position of a Ukrainian M777 howitzer in the Kursk region. It is reported that both drones failed to achieve a direct hit on the gun itself, but the second drone managed to strike the M777 with fragments, as well as set fire to the powder charges of the howitzer and destroy the ammunition.
Meanwhile, Russian troops are preparing for an offensive in the area of the aggregate plant and a block of high-rise buildings in Vovchansk, according to Russian media. Russian troops have reportedly deployed additional personnel from the Storm detachment and conducted logistical support activities to prepare for the assault.
The following footage shows Russian aviation striking a cluster of Ukrainian equipment near the Kursk border with high-explosive bombs:
Nuclear blackmailing unacceptable
In Kurchatov, where the Kursk NPP is located, the situation remains tense. Several dozens of kilometres away from the town, fighting is going on, while all services and enterprises are operating normally, the head of the administration reports.
In April, when the world community feared strikes on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Ukraine allegedly demanded that control over the plant be handed over to it. At that time, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova recalled that during a UN Security Council briefing on 15 April, the countries said, “Hand over control over the Zaporizhzhia NPP, and then it will stop being shelled.”
The Russian authorities repeatedly accused Ukraine and its allies of nuclear blackmail, when the threat of strikes on the nuclear power plant threatens not only the warring parties, but also the population of Europe, which may suffer from radiation.
Full-fledged attack
Some military experts assess Ukraine’s military efforts in the Kursk region as a full-fledged operation to infiltrate Russian territory. Therefore, Kyiv can be accused, like Russia, of violating the UN charter, they claim. The situation raises questions against the backdrop of an officially undeclared war and the fact that Ukraine continued until recently to transport Russian oil and gas to Europe for profit.
The Ukrainian leadership has taken a risky gamble to strengthen its negotiating position, according to Ukrainian media. The AFU’s actions on Russian territory risk triggering a full-scale military operation by Russian troops in the Sumy region, Ukraine.
It is reported that Russia is already seizing grey zones on the territory of the Sumy region. According to Ukrainian media, the local authorities declared the need to evacuate 20,000 people.
Meanwhile, more and more evidence of direct involvement of NATO countries in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is surfacing online. According to reports, the commander of the Georgian Legion said that his unit was the first to invade the Kursk region. The attack allegedly involved mercenaries from Poland and other NATO countries.
The Ukrainian raid across the border is increasingly developing into a large-scale operation with the redeployment of reserve troops and further escalation of hostilities. However, how the risky gamble by the Ukrainian military command will end remains a question.
