The Polish Statistics Office (GUS) has published detailed data showing that Poland’s economy grew by 3.2 per cent in annualised terms in the second quarter of 2024, the highest rate since the third quarter of 2022 and above analysts’ forecasts (2.7 per cent).
Bartosz Sawicki, an analyst at fintech firm Cinkciarz.pl, emphasised that only Cyprus, Croatia and Denmark grew faster in the European Union during this period. Sawicki attributes this growth mainly to high consumer spending, which remains the main driver of Poland’s economic growth. Individual consumption growth increased from 4.6 per cent to 4.7 per cent year-on-year.
However, he noted that investment and net exports remain weak. The analyst explained that several key factors are contributing to consumption growth, including loose fiscal policy, higher public sector wages and a generally strong labour market. Following a sharp decline in inflation, real wage growth at companies has reached double digits.
Looking to the future, Sawicki forecasts that Poland’s economy will grow by around 3% for the full year, with individual consumption growth approaching 5%. He considers this a good result, especially considering the economic downturn in Germany. Sawicki also predicts that next year’s growth could be closer to 4 per cent as investment increases and Western Europe’s economy improves.
Inflation has been within the central bank’s target range for most of this year, but accelerated in July to 4.2 per cent, the highest since December last year. The previous two months, inflation held at 2.5-2.6 per cent respectively.
The high economic growth figures will reduce pressure on the central bank, which has been criticised by Prime Minister Donald Tusk for restrictive, aggressive monetary policy that is holding back economic development.
