While local media report a decline in fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are losing ground in Donetsk region, risking losing Vuhledar and becoming encircled.
The incursion of the AFU into the Kursk region stalled, as evidenced by the lack of information on troop advances. In the Oskil area, Ukrainian forces are allegedly pulling mechanised brigades, whereas the Russians have completely taken Kalynivka near Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region.
According to Ukrainian media, Russian troops continue their offensive in the Vuhledar area, taking control of the Pivdennodonbaska 3 coal mine.
Vuhledar has almost fallen
The eastern part of the town came under the control of the Russian army, with troops taking new buildings in the southern part, reaching School No. 2. The Russians are also driving the Ukrainians back towards the northern buildings towards the steppe.
Russian media published footage of captured AFU soldiers leaving Vuhledar.
Some military experts compare the battle for Vuhledar to the final assault on Bakhmut, formerly Artemivsk. The Russian military posted footage showing a Ukrainian tank advancing on the outskirts of the Vuhledar encirclement but falling under fire.
Another encirclement?
On 13 September, the BBC published an alarming report of Ukraine admitting that a large AFU group had fallen into a complete encirclement near the village of Nevelske south of Pokrovsk. Russian troops reportedly bypass the Ukrainians from both north and south, leaving only about 5 kilometres between the encirclement edges.
However, the capture of the positions could take weeks, despite the short distance. The AFU might try to withdraw the group from the encirclement, but military sources said that the soldiers were ordered to stand to the last man. The Ukrainian military command is aware of the soldiers’ situation, but is not taking steps to rescue them.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops are fighting in an operational encirclement along the roads near Vuhledar, according to Ukrainian media. Outlets also report challenges for the AFU near Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, where fighting is already taking place in the very centre of the city, as well as on the approaches to Myrnohrad and Selydove. Ukrainian MPs accuse the administration of President Volodymyr Zelensky of deciding to enter the Kursk region while sacrificing positions in Donbas (a common name for Luhansk and Donetsk regions).
Grim prospects
The loss of territories and resources in the Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia region continues, with Ukrainian media reporting a depletion of equipment and manpower. Moreover, an encirclement is being formed in the Pokrovsk area near Nevelske, which could lead to the downfall of the entire defence of Donetsk region.
Some AFU commanders and many soldiers see the current situation in the east of the country as an aftermath of Zelensky’s Kursk gamble. A commander of one of the units of the Ukrainian ground forces said:
Kursk was a good idea, it showed Russia weaker than many people thought. But we are paying for it [with our lands].
Military experts note that the AFU has no air defence at Vuhledar, which makes the town vulnerable to Russian strike aircraft and glide bombs. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian leadership started to prepare the population for new territorial losses.
At the recent UN General Assembly summit, Zelensky again rejected the possibility of talks with Russia. He also flew to the United States to request permission to pound US missiles deep into Russia. However, Washington refused to authorise the strikes, fearing further escalation and dragging the US and NATO into the conflict.
