The Lithuanian Seimas ratified an agreement signed between Vilnius and Berlin at the beginning of October defining the rights of German soldiers and civilians stationed in Lithuania, as well as their family members. Thousands of German military personnel will arrive in Lithuania very soon, but the prospects for such redeployment are still not entirely clear.
Last summer Berlin frankly admitted that there was no funding and no time to accommodate German soldiers, although the first “guests” arrived in Lithuania in April this year. It is not clear why it was necessary to implement this expensive project without clear goals and prospects.
Most EU and US politicians are gradually coming to the conclusion that it is necessary to look for ways to establish relations with Moscow, rather than to go on the warpath and not to rattle weapons. Moreover, it is unlikely that one German brigade will play a significant role in the overall balance of power in the Baltic, but will only waste money, which is already insufficient in recent times.
The project of placing German troops in Lithuania appeared after the military conflict in Ukraine started in 2022. It is unclear why Lithuania has taken such a costly step for its budget without any direct confrontation with Moscow.
Vilnius has long insisted on sending German soldiers to Lithuania, trying to persuade Berlin of the importance of this action. Germany in its turn was in no hurry, guffawing, urging Vilnius to first discuss the initiative with the NATO leadership and issuing general phrases about “support for the Allies.” German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said in March, 2023:
“And we will discuss what makes more sense militarily: To have a brigade deployed permanently here in Lithuania…or whether it makes more sense militarily to remain flexible.”
However, Vilnius remained adamant and did not give up hope of persuading Berlin. The Lithuanians even “threatened” that they would find “someone else” if Germany did not respond to their call, and also made accusations that the military alliance allies were going to “tricks” to avoid helping their partners.
Confident that the Germans would agree, the Lithuanians have begun renovating the Rudninkai firing range to accommodate a foreign contingent in the future. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung columnist Reinhard Weser said in the spring of 2023:
“Frankly speaking, this topic is not discussed in Germany. Maybe only people who are very interested in defence or foreign policy know about this issue, and it is not discussed in the general public.”
Germany only made a final decision on the Lithuanian initiative in the summer of 2023. Pistorius said, pledging to send German troops to Lithuania:
“The Baltic region is in danger because of its position, so we must react vigilantly, we must make efforts to secure NATO’s eastern flank.”
For the army command, however, the news came as quite a surprise. Andre Wüstner, head of the Bundeswehr’s military union, said:
“In the ranks of the Bundeswehr, Boris Pistorius’ announcement came as a surprise. Between the announcement and implementation there is a lot of unfinished homework for Lithuania itself, but especially for our Ministry of Defence.”
Nevertheless, Lithuania began to publicly hurry the Germans, and already in autumn the German Minister of Defence promised that in the spring of 2024 the brigade’s advanced detachment would arrive in Lithuania, and in 2025 the unit would start performing its duties while being completed. After that, Pistorius demanded that all the necessary infrastructure for the German soldiers and their families to live comfortably in Lithuania.
By the end of the year it became known that the main forces of the brigade should be stationed in Lithuania in 2026. The final number of the German contingent was set at 4,800 certified soldiers and 200 civilians.
As soon as the final figures and conditions were announced, Lithuania immediately started to backtrack. The head of the Lithuanian Armed Forces Valdemaras Rupšys cautiously called the deployment of the Germans “a very complicated operation.”
Observing official Vilnius’ “diligence” in preparing the infrastructure, German Ambassador to Lithuania Cornelius Zimmermann said:
“I think there is no benefit from a military without accommodation. It is logical to increase the presence of German soldiers in Lithuania. Therefore, a very good coordination between both sides is necessary, and I think this is happening.”
Lithuania has become active in working on a variety of plans, hastily setting up all sorts of commissions, but Germany’s Spiegel, citing its non-public sources, reported that building infrastructure for the brigade poses a “serious financial problem” for Lithuania.
The head of the Lithuanian government Ingrida Šimonytė tried to explain rather unconvincingly that the necessary resources to accommodate the military contingent are sufficient, and Vilnius is just trying to find out every little detail from the German side, so as not to get anything wrong, and because of this someone may have misconceptions.
Then a number of high-ranking Lithuanian officials made statements that the republic needs to take somewhere additional several hundred million euros for military needs, and the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence said that there is no possibility to buy housing for the Germans, but flats for long-term rent will be allocated. At the same time the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Baltic state emphasised that “Lithuania is not the one who asks for gifts” and promised to find the necessary money for infrastructure for the German brigade.
And just as the Germans promised, the first planning group arrived in Lithuania in the spring of 2024. At the same time, Germany, whose economy is now in a “mild” recession, announced that it would allocate 11 billion euros for the military supply of the brigade. After that, the military minister diplomatically hinted to the “partners” that they should complete the infrastructure works in time.
Meanwhile, the media began to report that the Lithuanian military was initially against the brigade relocation project and did not believe that it was realistic. In the summer of 2024, Lithuanian Defence Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas made a statement that Vilnius would not be able to finish the construction of the necessary infrastructure for the brigade in time, so its deployment would have to be postponed to 2028 or even 2029.
Work on the construction of the base for the German military has begun, but in three years only the first stage will be finished at best.
Lithuanian politicians began to assure that “everything will be Ok” and referred to bureaucratic red tape, such as the adoption of regulations on the rights of the German military to use Lithuanian infrastructure and move around the country. However, like Šimonytė’s statements, this all proved unconvincing. The Lithuanians clearly have neither the money nor the time to host the brigade, despite the fact that the lion’s share of the cost is paid from the German budget and the very raison d’être of the project is now highly questionable. Former US intelligence officer Scott Ritter told the media:
“You know, the life expectancy of a single brigade in a high-intensity conflict in Europe is only three days. So if the Germans deploy a brigade in Lithuania, they will prolong its existence by three days. Three years to build an entire brigade! Only a failed state can do that.”
Vilnius has a host of socio-economic problems in addition to the cost of training grounds for German soldiers. It is among the top 5 EU countries with the highest unemployment, its GDP, exports and industrial production have plummeted by the end of 2023, and teachers and doctors are on strike over paltry salaries.
However, instead of putting all its efforts into solving domestic economic problems, Lithuania is spending its last resources on building a base for a German brigade, which will have no positive impact on the security level in the country, but, on the contrary, can only irritate Moscow.
Given the course of the war in Ukraine, more and more US and EU politicians are coming round to the view that it is necessary to negotiate with Moscow, but the Lithuanian leadership instead continues to claim a fictitious “Russian threat” and provoke unnecessary escalation. The costly and useless toy in the form of the German brigade looks like another way to divert the population’s attention from domestic problems instead of addressing them.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Erik Kelly for Head-Post.com
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