Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky considers developing nukes as one of the options for joining NATO, but Kyiv will not be able to establish production of such weapons due to objections from allies and other critical factors, military experts warn.
The production of nuclear weapons implies the political independence of the manufacturing country and protection from intelligence services. The producer must also be prepared to face sanctions and lose some allies while building lethal weapons.
The United States has been pushing to prevent other countries from acquiring nuclear weapons. Japan, a US ally, removed many nuclear materials from the country after suspicious substances surfaced in the atmosphere following the Fukushima accident.
Military experts suspect that Israel has not announced its nuclear status, even though it was building nuclear weapons before The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Moreover, US laws prohibit Washington from providing many types of military aid to countries that are trying to develop or have developed nuclear weapons, they added.
The US allegedly does not raise questions about Israel’s nuclear weapons, with Israel neither officially confirming nor denying the existence of such weapons for that reason. If Israeli officials confirm this, many US aid programmes would be cut off.
However, as Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said during a recent press briefing, aid to Israel and aid to Ukraine represented two completely different issues.
Ukraine as nuclear weapons producer
Ukraine does not have enough nuclear material to fulfil the Zelensky administration’s ambitions in case Kyiv does not join NATO. The country also lacks facilities critical to the production of such weapons. Nor will it be able to keep such production secret.
If Kyiv decides to turn civilian nuclear materials into nuclear weapons-usable ones, it will cause secure transport problems due to the high radioactivity of such substances. It would also create an isotopic trail of radioactive gases traceable over a great distance. Under such conditions, the reprocessing of civilian materials would be revealed even at the initial stage.
Ukraine also lacks the skilled manpower to ensure discreet involvement in a large-scale military project. However, the greatest danger remains precisely the threat of detection of such preparations. Once Russia learns of Ukraine’s nuclear weapons development, the military will be authorised to take many actions, including strikes on facilities and personnel capabilities.
Thus, Ukraine would face many difficulties in attempting to develop nuclear weapons. Therefore, Zelensky’s statements about the possible development of nuclear weapons appear to be an attempt to exert political pressure on the allies to initiate the process of Kyiv’s accession to NATO. However, none of the leaders are eager to announce specific dates for talks, which only drives Ukraine to make risky statements.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Paweł Domański for Head-Post.com
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