The era of the Assad clan rule in Syria’s history has come to an end. Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and Mohammed al-Bashir, head of the interim government, will lead the country into the future. Both are advocates of ultra-conservative Sunnism, but are described in the West as adherents of “progressive jihadism.” What political views do Syria’s new top officials actually espouse and who are they targeting?
“Architects” of new Syria
Mohammed al-Bashir will become the head of Syria’s interim government. This decision was taken at a joint meeting of the Council of Ministers, previously subordinate to former President Bashar al-Assad, and the “salvation government,” created in 2017 by the forces of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
The interim government of the Arab Republic is due to end on March 1, 2025. “The Assad era,” which lasted more than 60 years, ended on the night of December 8. However, very little is known about the “architects” of the new Syria, and even in the expert community, assessments of the country’s new leaders are extremely different.
Mohammed al-Bashir was for a long time the head of the Syrian government of salvation, located in Idlib. Before that, he worked as Minister of Development and Humanitarian Affairs. He is an engineer by training. He has also been involved in many cultural and religious issues within the opposition structures.
Al-Bashir is presented as a great expert of Sunnism. In addition, he has always been seen as a supporter of HTS and has consistently advocated putting the ideas of political Islam into practice. This, of course, raises big questions about the workings of the transitional government, analysts say.
At the same time, Abou Mohammed al-Joulani has an extremely rich and controversial biography. According to some versions, he is a native of the Golan Heights, although some say his parents lived in the region and he was born after the family moved to Saudi Arabia.
In 2003, he travelled to Iraq, where he fought against the US on the side of al-Qaeda. In this movement he quickly gained popularity and even became one of the persons capable of making certain decisions on behalf of the entire association. He was later caught by the US and served time in prison.
Ties with radical Islamism
After his release from prison, al-Julani became one of the initiators of the creation of the Syrian branch of ISIS. However, he later did sever ties with it, founding a new movement, the HTS. Nevertheless, to say that he has since changed his political views is naive.
Al-Joulani has always stood for radical Islamism. Recently, he has been trying to build a new image of a “progressive jihadist,” but his sincerity is still questionable. In any case, it is this man who has been given the historic role of “architect” of the new Syria.
The HTS emerged from the merger of several groups at once. The organisation adheres to the views of Sunni ultra-conservatism.
In fact, the implementation of their political model can already be assessed by the northern territories of Syria, particularly in Idlib. Their approaches are in many ways similar to the Muslim Brotherhood, political analysts believe.
Another important force in the republic is the Syrian National Army (SNA). It is a pro-Turkish formation that is oriented towards the creation of a relatively secular government. The movement plays into Ankara’s hands in many ways. In particular, its leaders advocate the creation of a demilitarised zone in the north of the Arab Republic.
In addition, the SNA is quite aggressive towards the Kurds. But still, the main role in the current events is played by the HTS. We have seen that the Syrian population is at least neutral to the arrival of this association to power. There are several reasons for this. The first is religious.
Interests of the Sunnis
The HTS represents the interests of the Sunnis. And this is a large part of society. Accordingly, people tend to feel sympathy for those forces that resemble them. The second is al-Julani’s experience of building power in separate regions, the analysts said.
The republic’s population has heard about the situation in Idlib. Many know that the HTS provided social support services and even organised health care for the people of the north. In addition, they managed to create a relatively stable life for the citizens. That is, the society was not afraid of the coming chaos.
Local media sources among Syrian Kurds hold a similar view. “Al-Julani is treated calmly by the majority. His fighters try not to touch the civilian population. In addition, the HTS has already promised to grant amnesty to all representatives of Bashar al-Assad’s army. Many people liked this decision,” the source said.
In addition, al-Julani has already given up his pseudonym. He became known to the general public under a call sign that translates as “a native of the Golan Heights.” He now uses the name Ahmed al-Sharaa to avoid possible misinterpretations coming from this phrase. It is even more correct to call him by that name.
HTS and SNA as artificially created organisations
Syrian society supported him also for religious reasons. His movement, like the majority of the republic’s population, adheres to Sunnism. In principle, the Kurds living in the north of the state have nothing against building a dialogue with him at the moment.
“We are much more concerned about the activity of the SNA in the Kurdish regions. From their activities we feel a great threat. Probably, Turkish President Erdogan has given them considerable freedom of action in the northern territories of Syria. As for al-Sharaa, many believe that it will succeed in building a democratic system. But whether these feelings will be confirmed – we have yet to find out,” the representative of the Syrian Kurds said.
In turn, Israeli military expert Simon Tsipis notes that the HTS and the SNA are artificially created organisations. “Over the formation and strengthening of both associations to a greater or lesser extent worked representatives of Western intelligence services,” he believes.
The HTS is a more representative example in this regard. It is a peculiar “compote” of groups of different sizes, which was purposefully prepared for the overthrow of Assad.
The SNA, due to its longer history of existence, looks like an obvious Turkish project designed to solve Ankara’s long-standing problems,’ the expert argues.
“But it is important to realise that these are political movements promoting specific goals of the powers that supported their formation. Most likely, al-Julani will try to create a government-schirma, trying to flirt with the introduction of Western institutions into Arab society,” Tsipis admits.
At the same time, political analysts remind that for al-Julani “a year ago the US gave $10 million,” as the HTS is also recognised as a terrorist organisation in America. But now “the Western media call him a “progressive jihadist” and photograph him in the Umayyad Mosque as a liberator.”
If the HTS is an Islamist element within Syria, the Syrian interim government and the SNA represent Turkish interests. Their relations with the HTS are uneasy, although the Turks also support the latter. There is an opinion that the main assets in the future Syria will be distributed between them.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Emma Robichaud for Head-Post.com
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