Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Tel Aviv would retain control of the Golan Heights forever, triggering protests by the present Syrian government and anger from Arab countries.
Israel anticipates that the logistical connection between Iran and Hezbollah will be severed, with Iran no longer able to supply the group with arms and ammunition through Syria. The move should weaken Hezbollah, which today poses a threat to Israel, experts say.
Tel Aviv is one of the main beneficiaries of toppling the government of Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian authorities had been an adversary of Israel for decades, with the Israel Defence Forces striking military targets in Syria believed to be Iranian, knowing that there would be no retaliation.
Syria’s former leadership was wary of launching an open war with Israel against the backdrop of a weakened army and internal instability. Syria’s potential leader, head of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Abu Mohammad al-Julani, also said he had no intention of fighting Israel.
However, al-Julani was previously a member of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, and his father comes from the Golan Heights, which Isral intends to control. This casts a shadow on the intentions of the new Syrian government to co-operate with Israel, experts say.
Military analysts also emphasise that a public conflict has already erupted between the HTS and another powerful Syrian rebel group, the Syrian National Army, raising doubts about al-Julani’s rising as the country’s leader. In light of the potential conflict with any of the possible governments, Israel has launched pre-emptive strikes, weakening the Syrians’ air force and navy.
The Golan Heights will turn into another hot spot with systematic military clashes between Israeli and Syrian troops. Even if Syria splits into several states as a result of political unrest, Israel will still have to wage war on everyone, including Turkish proxies.
If an independent Kurdistan emerges on the current Syrian territory, the US will not aid the Kurds in order not to ruin relations with Turkey, whereas Israel will be their main public ally, experts believe.
A possible change of government in Jordan, with which Tel Aviv shares a long and unfortified border, could be another challenge for Israel. With the ongoing war against Hamas, Israel cannot afford new fronts on the border with Syria and Jordan.
Israeli army and intelligence actions have indeed weakened Hezbollah, preventing the group from aggressively opposing the overthrow of the Assad government. However, instead of Hezbollah, Israel now risks facing the new leaders of Syria and Jordanian forces. Israel’s strategic gains in the region came as a surprise to everyone, but they also come with potential losses for the IDF, which might be forced to fight on multiple fronts at once.
Abd al-Latif Ghulam for Head-Post.com
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