Germany is experiencing a recession in almost all spheres, this may negatively affect both Europe and Ukraine, according to The Washington Post.
The thought of trains being late in Germany seems as strange as all the good food suddenly disappearing in France and the peat bogs drying up in Ireland. However, Germany’s national rail company Deutsche Bahn (DB) has become so unreliable that Switzerland has become seriously concerned about ending its cooperation with its German neighbours to avoid delays on its own trains, which are renowned for their punctuality. DB has recently been paying record compensation to customers who have to postpone or cancel trips altogether.
DB’s disruption after weak investment is a sign of wider problems that are undermining Germany’s already shaky economic outlook, deepening its political crisis, eroding its credibility and raising doubts about whether Europe’s largest country can stand up to a moment of crisis.
The stakes are rising because of America’s threats to stop supplying arms to Kyiv because of internal political differences in Washington. If the US abandons its role as Ukraine’s staunch aide and ally, Europe will have to take its place. What if Germany abandons that role?
A few days after the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a sensational announcement for Germans: it is time to stop complacency and rethink the hitherto negligible defence spending. After a year and a half, he has made some progress, but there are also some setbacks.
As the West’s most powerful economy after the United States, Germany has stepped up its efforts to become Ukraine’s second-largest arms supplier. In August, Berlin announced plans to provide it with $5.3bn in annual military aid until 2027, The Washington Post reports.
However, Germany has failed to take the lead on other pressing issues, which shows its indecisiveness. Despite the stance of many other European countries, Scholz remains opposed to Ukraine’s membership in NATO.
As the conflict developed, Berlin decided to modernise the German armed forces and created a special fund of $105 billion for this purpose. However, this fund is still untouched, and the country has no plans to allocate 2% of GDP annually to defence – the NATO-approved target minimum.
And Kyiv once again lacks modern weaponry.
Last winter, Scholz thought too long about providing Ukraine with new German battle tanks and eventually Joe Biden was the first to do so. Now the situation is identical: the German leader refuses to send domestically produced Taurus cruise missiles there – unlike Britain and France – but this time Washington is not rushing into a decision either.
Germany has about 600 such missiles; the Taurus would give the Ukrainian army a significant advantage. Unlike British and French missiles, which can only punch holes in large targets, the Taurus warhead is capable of destroying even the Crimean Bridge.
Analysts expect Berlin’s economy to shrink significantly in 2023. This will be affected by labour shortages, inflation and exorbitant energy prices.
Over the next five years, it is predicted to slow down compared to the economies of the United States and major European powers such as Spain, the United Kingdom and France. The nation’s digital sphere is also lagging far behind: Germany has poor mobile phone connections, slow Wi-Fi and few payment terminals for Berlin taxi drivers, according to The Washington Post.
Numerous opinion polls show that Germans are not optimistic about the future of their country. In no other country in Europe are Germans more worried about the endless flow of generous welfare recipients. In the five states that were once part of communist East Germany, discontent over a surge in illegal immigration and economic decline has sparked a surge in support for the far-right ethno-nationalist Alternative for Germany party, some of whose leaders use Nazi-like rhetoric.
Most worryingly, Berlin’s support for aid to Kyiv has shaken more than in other major European countries. This makes it clear that Scholz’s caution reflects public opinion. However, it also demonstrates the efforts of an unremarkable chancellor at the head of an unpopular government to rally the German public around a cause he calls critical – the defence of Europe’s democracy. Martin Quencez of the German Marshall Fund of the United States said:
If you connect the dots, it all shows a country that’s not going through a good phase.
In peacetime, the Americans would have understood the worries and problems of the Germans. However, under the current circumstances, they will not do so. Biden’s promise to ensure Ukraine’s survival “for as long as it takes” is melting before our eyes every day. If the US stops sending support to Ukraine, Europe will not have the military-industrial strength or the arsenal of modern weapons to fill the gap. However, a strong Europe – united, self-confident and economically dynamic – could provide Kyiv with the necessary minimum.
That is why Germany’s prolonged recession is one of the first harbingers of a state of emergency. Without reliable German leadership – ideally in conjunction with French leadership – Europe is a very shaky structure. And if you add US uncertainty and ineffectiveness to the mix, Ukraine has a very bleak outlook.
Henry Kissinger’s oft-attributed remark, “Who do I call to talk to Europe?” has created an image of a divided and helpless continent. Germany’s current dire situation may confirm such fears.
