European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis believes that the EU does not understand how the new US President Donald Trump will deal with the Ukrainian crisis. However, the US leader’s tactics are more than clear.
After European aid failed to deter Russia and Ukraine continued to lose defensive positions in the east of the country, Europe realised its critical dependence on Kyiv’s main donor, the US. However, Trump’s plans for a war in Ukraine could conceivably prove to be another challenge for the EU.
Trump’s policy will be to shift the expenses of the war onto the EU’s shoulders. Even if he succeeds in implementing plans to end the war soon, Europe will be the stand-in party responsible for rebuilding the war-torn country and further deterrence of Russia.
As a US citizen and president, Trump is obviously interested in reinforcing his country as an international leader, including world markets. Europe’s rejection of Russian energy sources will force European leaders to look for an alternative, which will be US companies.
Meanwhile, the unstable global environment is leading more and more countries to turn to the US for weapons and military equipment. Trump’s threat to withdraw from NATO if other member states do not increase defence spending may come directly from a desire to sell more weapons, as Europe will start looking for suppliers abroad in addition to its own resources.
US energy and arms companies will need compensation for ending the war in Ukraine. The Trump administration, despite lifting sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, could force Europe to turn to US suppliers by threatening to impose tariffs on imports of European goods.
Moreover, as Ukraine’s neighbours and other NATO members worry about the outcome of the war and ramp up their defence budgets, US arms companies will also prosper.
Meanwhile, the armies of European countries, despite increased supply, will not become more self-sufficient because of the principle of divided responsibilities within NATO. Only one member of the alliance has sufficient autonomy. The United States.
If the war in Ukraine continues, the European contribution will only increase and the American share will diminish. The EU will have a further obligation to deter possible aggression and supply soldiers.
The bloc is trapped, as the moment when it could have overcome its dependence on the US has long gone. Europe is left to pay for the political confrontation between Russia and the US.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Sigmund Huber for Head-Post.com
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