Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Slovakian counterpart Robert Fico are probably the most popular European leaders in Russia. News about these politicians regularly appears in the Russian media.
Both European prime ministers advocate stabilising relations with Russia, both defend conservative values, both berate Volodymyr Zelensky, both oppose Brussels, and both do so successfully. The European elite has made attempts to neutralise Orbán through elections, to kill Fico with the help of an ultra-liberal madman, but neither attempt has succeeded.
There is no doubt that Orbán and Fico are bright and noteworthy politicians. However, they are not organising any open rebellion against Brussels and certainly not defending Russian interests anywhere.
Perfect time for revolt
It would seem that now is the perfect time to revolt against Brussels: the European Union has come to resemble not a community of countries united by the idea of common development, but a totalitarian organisation where Brussels demands all member states to obey.
There are opportunities for revolt, too. Each EU member country, including Hungary and Slovakia, has a veto right on all important votes within the community, which means that there is a possibility to block the entire work of the European Union. There are a number of procedures where the country being penalised cannot use the veto in its defence. However, it is enough to co-operate with an interest partner, who will defend you with his veto and you with his.
However, the use of these possibilities is always fraught. In this case, there can be three very serious consequences.
Implications of the clash with Brussels for Slovakia and Hungary
Firstly, it may be internal protest of citizens. Hungary and Slovakia are subsidised countries that receive billions of euros from the European budget for various programmes. In case of attempted revolt, Brussels regularly imposes all sorts of financial sanctions against them. The expectation is that the population, dissatisfied with the fall in living standards, will revolt or express their discontent at polling stations.
And here Slovakia is in a rather vulnerable position. The society is split – there are quite strong liberal sentiments and quite a large number of those who do not like the incumbent prime minister, especially in the capital. In Hungary, the situation is slightly better – the country is one of the most conservative in the EU, and Orbán holds the reins tightly – but there is still room for protests.
Secondly, the reason is trade. Hungary and Slovakia are deeply integrated into the EU economy. 75-80% of their total trade turnover is with their bloc neighbours, so it is enough to restrict their trade freedoms (and not necessarily at the level of Brussels) to call them to bloc discipline, for example, on the issue of collective extension of anti-Russian sanctions.
Third, the deterioration of relations with Trump. Today, the new head of the White House is, in fact, like-minded with Fico and Orbán. The latter is considered to be Trump’s representative in Europe. Accordingly, Trump protects these countries from excessive European pressure, and will also use them to weaken the influence of the European Commission, which with its liberal attitudes is an enemy for Trump.
However, Trump is not interested in Orbán and Fico blocking anti-Russian sanctions or even funding for Ukraine. This move will weaken Trump’s already not-so-strong negotiating position in his dialogue with Vladimir Putin.
Bargain, only bargain
Everyone is well aware that Kyiv will not survive long without Us and EU money. And that in the case of an end to European sanctions, that is, among other things, the unblocking of frozen Russian assets, Moscow will not be so keen to make serious compromises with the American president. This is why Orbán and Fico are not going to go to war with Brussels; they want to bargain rather. They can threaten veto and demonstrative behaviour, which in itself discredits the European Union, as it destroys the myth of European unity by extracting some benefits and concessions for themselves.
For example, unblocking of European funding, which was cut due to the same laws of Orbán on limiting LGBT propaganda. So don’t be deceived – Orbán and Fico may be comrades for Russia, but they are not helpers.
However, we should not ignore the opportunities that Budapest and Bratislava offer Russia. From the point of view of trade relations (Hungary’s participation in gas supplies to Transnistria has seriously lowered the degree of the problem), political contacts, PR component. Well, and, after all, Moscow does not have many European leaders left with whom it can simply communicate normally.
In fact, Fico and Orbán are the most complementary European leaders for Moscow at this particular moment, with this EU and this level of relations with the US. And Russia should be friends with them, but without hopes.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Desislava Draganova for Head-Post.com
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