Donald Trump’s persistent interest in acquiring Greenland has made the island a geopolitical flashpoint. The situation has left Europe uneasy and placed Denmark in a delicate position as it navigates the future of the territory.
Rising tensions over fate in Greenland
In discussions about potential challenges for Donald Trump’s second term as US president, European leaders have highlighted several key concerns. However, one issue stands out: Greenland.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, many European leaders worried that Greenland’s fate could become one of the most complex diplomatic challenges in the coming years. Trump’s repeated mentions of his desire to buy the island have raised the possibility of using coercion to alter European borders. This is especially troubling since Trump leads NATO, an alliance designed to protect Europe’s security. One Eastern European leader admitted they were more concerned about Trump’s interest in Greenland than Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
To understand the situation better, I visited Copenhagen last week. I found a nation in shock, with the government scrambling to respond. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s advisers are working tirelessly behind closed doors to develop plans for a situation that seems almost surreal. Their main concern is how Greenland’s internal politics could complicate the issue. Last Tuesday, Greenland’s prime minister announced an election for March 11, with political parties competing to show their commitment to independence. The ruling Siumut party also revealed plans for a referendum on independence after the election.
Tensions between Greenland and Denmark
Greenlanders often feel sidelined by political elites in Copenhagen. On the other hand, many Danes hold negative perceptions of Greenlanders, partly because of the behaviour of some Greenlandic people living in Copenhagen, which is sometimes compared to the behaviour of British tourists abroad.
In Danish political circles, most agree that Greenland will eventually become independent. The real question is when and how. The process, however, is complex. For example, the Faroe Islands voted for independence in the 1970s, but logistical challenges led to the abandonment of the idea. Until Greenland achieves independence, Denmark must contend with Trump’s pursuit of the territory.
Reports show that the 45-minute conversation between Denmark’s prime minister and Trump was tense. Both leaders are known for being direct, but the meeting did not result in any progress. They agreed to continue their discussions after Trump’s inauguration. Since then, Denmark has been relieved that no further comments have come from the US administration, aside from brief remarks by figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth during their confirmation hearings.
While Denmark is open to a larger US role in the Arctic, it remains unclear what Trump actually wants from Greenland. Denmark has offered everything short of sovereignty, but no specific demands concerning security or economic matters have been made.
Challenges in building US relations
Leading up to the election, Denmark worked hard to build relationships with Republicans. They have maintained good contacts within the institutional parts of the administration. However, this has been complicated by unpredictable surrogates like Elon Musk and Donald Trump Jr., who can stir confusion at any moment. Many in Copenhagen now question whether the US is truly interested in security concerns. Donald Trump Jr.’s brief visit to Greenland did not include security experts, but rather a group of TikTok influencers led by activist Charlie Kirk. Some now speculate that Trump’s interest may not be about security, but about expanding US territory.
Denmark’s strategy: Delay and distraction
Denmark has tried to show that it is not isolated in this matter. Prime Minister Frederiksen has toured European capitals to garner support. However, it is unclear what kind of support is needed. While European solidarity is important, leaders are aware that the US has many ways to exert pressure on Greenland and other territories.
At the same time, Denmark has sought to avoid provoking Trump and has tried to calm tensions. They emphasise that this issue goes beyond Greenland, linking it to broader global topics like tariffs and trade negotiations, where Trump has asserted US dominance.
One of the biggest concerns for Denmark and Europe is the possibility of scenarios discussed in US right-wing media. For example, Senator Ted Cruz has supported the idea of a referendum for Greenland to join the US. With just 56,000 residents, Greenland could be vulnerable to manipulation, especially with promises of large financial incentives. Some Republicans have also suggested a free association agreement, similar to that between the US and some Pacific islands. While these ideas are speculative, any transfer of territory would face significant constitutional hurdles. If a referendum were to occur, it would require lengthy negotiations. The Danish parliament, the Folketing, would also have to pass a law before any changes could happen. Most likely, it would be years before a resolution is found, with 2035 being a likely timeline.
Denmark’s strategic options moving forward
Denmark has realised that it lacks access to the key decision-makers in the US. The people with the most influence are a small group with unofficial or semi-official ties to Trump. Denmark’s efforts to appease Trump have not worked. However, Denmark is hesitant to take a more confrontational stance, either by threatening countermeasures or courting alliances with China. For now, Denmark’s strategy is focused on delaying the issue and quietly building support for worst-case scenarios. As one analyst put it, Denmark hopes the issue will fade when Trump’s attention shifts elsewhere.
