As the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth year, Russia and the US are becoming increasingly active on negotiations to end the conflict.
However, the negotiation process may be complicated by a number of legal challenges. Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, stated that Russia would sign the peace treaty only with the “legitimate government of Ukraine.”
If the negotiations are illegitimate, it means that their results can also be later declared legally null and void. It is fundamentally important that the people who will sign peace agreements have legitimate authority to do so.
Nebenzya also noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s decree to prohibit talks with Russia might “complicate the negotiation process.” Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that Zelensky signed the order as a “legitimate president,” but now he would not be able to cancel it, as his tenure had expired, according to the Ukrainian constitution.
Thus, negotiations can only start when Zelensky leaves the post of the country’s president, and the head of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament), who will become the acting head of state, legitimately cancels the decree.
Zelensky’s miscalculation
US President Donald Trump demonstrates clear sympathy for Putin on the issue of resolving the war in Ukraine. In his Truth Social, the US leader echoed Putin’s recent statement that Europe would “stand at the feet of the master.”
Meanwhile, the situation surrounding aid to Ukraine in exchange for its rare earth resources gained momentum as Trump stepped up his rhetoric on the issue.
I want to have our money secured because we’re spending hundreds of billions of dollars. (…) We are going to have all this money in there, and I say: ‘I want it back.’ And I told them that I want the equivalent, like $500 billion worth of rare earth. And they have essentially agreed to do that, so at least we don’t feel stupid.
Political experts suggest that the initiative to trade resources for US aid was put forward by Zelensky to attract Trump’s interest and persuade him not to give up further war funding. However, the Ukrainian president misjudged the business ambitions of Trump, who realised it was possible to squeeze a European country that was in a virtually desperate situation, they added.
Last September, Trump called Zelensky “the greatest salesman on Earth,” noting his ability to provide Ukraine with another round of US funding, according to Forbes.
Every time Zelensky comes to the United States he walks away with $100 billion, I think he’s the greatest salesman on Earth.
Now Trump, having taken office as President of the United States, is demonstrating how he can easily extort Ukrainian resources from Zelensky for aid that was previously provided on very different terms.
How Ukraine complicated Trump’s foreign policy
Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) continue to suffer losses in Russia’s Kursk region, casting doubt on what media outlets called Zelensky’s gamble. He explained the Ukrainian army’s efforts with Trump’s principle of “peace through strength.”
However, in an attempt to keep Russian territories under the control of the AFU, Zelensky faces the fall of Ukrainian defences in the Donetsk region, where Russian forces recently claimed to have taken Toretsk.
Ukrainian military commanders have thrown experienced units and modern weapons provided by allies into the Kursk region to reinforce the country’s negotiating position in future talks. The presence of the AFU on Russian territory is of particular importance to Zelensky, as Trump insists that the war will end soon.
Ukrainian media report that Kursk is far more important to Ukraine than any other territory captured by Russia.
Trump’s non-public plotting
Bloomberg recently reported that Trump’s envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg would collect the views of officials at the Munich Security Conference in Germany, as well as during visits to Kyiv and other European capitals, to present President Trump with options for resolving the war.
Meanwhile, Reuters informed that the Trump administration planned to push European allies to buy more US weapons for Ukraine ahead of possible peace talks with Moscow. The initiative will help reduce Ukrainian officials’ concerns that Trump might block further aid to Kyiv. However, it also means additional revenue for US arms manufacturers profiting from the Ukrainian conflict.
Kellogg’s visit to European countries, as well as Trump’s call for increased military spending by each NATO member state, may signal the US leader’s desire to shed the burden of supporting Ukraine in order to solve domestic issues and counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Meanwhile, Russia has not observed any practical changes in the US policy regarding the war in Ukraine. However, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said that attempts to force Moscow to make compromises “have not weakened at all.”
The situation on the ground is changing and this cannot be ignored. And we need to see to it that our opponents and the new US administration understand and acknowledge the fact that no agreements can be reached without resolving the root causes of the problems in question. That is why partial solutions and half-measures are not a path we are ready to follow.
Meanwhile, Moscow continues to build up its military-industrial capabilities, indicating the country’s ability to continue the war until acceptable negotiating terms emerge or war aims are achieved.
