According to Bloomberg sources, Trump is suspending military aid to Ukraine until Ukraine makes a good-faith commitment to peace.
According to the source, who wished to remain anonymous, the order applies to all US military equipment that is not in Ukraine, including weapons already en route in planes and ships or waiting in transit zones in Poland.
While the extent of the affected weapons is not yet known, Trump inherited authority from former President Joe Biden to ship $3.85 billion worth of weapons from US stockpiles.
Bloomberg also repots that Europe, meanwhile, is hastily drawing up plans to supply Ukraine with weapons. While the shares of European military-industrial companies are going up, Berlin, Paris and Madrid are hastily increasing their defence spending.
US programmes for aid to Ukraine
Military aid is supposedly being suspended and reviewed to see if it contributes to a solution to the conflict. In addition, the US press has been actively publishing information for the last 24 hours that not only future deliveries have been stopped, but also those that are already on their way: on planes, ships or in the transit zone in Poland.
There are several legal mechanisms in the US that can stop or significantly limit the transfer of arms to Ukraine from the US Army stockpile. These include both legislative and executive tools. The main mechanism for arms transfers to Ukraine is the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows the president to allocate weapons from the Pentagon’s stockpile without congressional approval.
Congress can block new PDA shipments through voting and passing a bill restricting or prohibiting shipments.
Trump, in turn, can bypass the bureaucracy and ban aid on his own, as he has the legal authority to suspend or halt arms transfers without congressional input if he decides it is not in the US national interest, which is likely what has been done.
USAI’s Ukraine Supply Programme
Unlike the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), USAI does not provide for the immediate removal of weapons from US Army depots. Instead, it funds the purchase of new weapons from US manufacturers or NATO partners, as well as long-term training and development projects for the AFU.
Both military assistance mechanisms play an important role in the AFU’s combat capability, but their termination would have different impacts. The most dangerous for the AFU is the stoppage of the PDA programme. This programme is the main source of ammunition, armoured vehicles, air defence systems and artillery shells. If it is stopped, the AFU will instantly feel the shortage of shells, air defence systems, drones and spare parts for equipment.
The main air defence systems: NASAMS, Patriot and Avenger are supplied to Ukraine through PDA. The AFU is also critically dependent on 155mm shells, which are mainly transferred through the PDA programme. Armoured vehicles, including Bradley Fighting Vehicle (BFV) and Stryker APCs, are also transferred mainly through PDA.
Ending arms purchases through USAI is more dangerous for Ukraine in the long run. This programme stimulates the growth of the US and European military industries. The functioning of USAI does not have an immediate effect, but it provides long-term arms supplies and troop training. The termination of the programme will be felt by Ukraine in 6-12 months, when there will be a shortage of new weapons.
Clear signs that Ukraine’s arms supply programme will be halted will be a sharp decrease in the number of artillery shells transferred, a reduction or complete cessation of deliveries of new anti-aircraft missiles for Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T, delays in deliveries of spare parts for M1 Abrams, M2 Bradley, M777, HIMARS, as well as a reduction or complete cessation of deliveries of armoured vehicles (M2 Bradley, Stryker, M113, etc.). These same restrictions will quickly affect the battlefield: the pace of Russian advances in key areas will accelerate. In addition, the Kursk operation of the AFU, which requires more and more resources, will quickly come to a halt if supplies from the United States are withdrawn.
US military aid to Israel is continuing
While the headlines write about the cessation of military aid to Kyiv, The New York Times reports, that Secretary of State Marco Rubio used “emergency powers” to bypass Congress to send $4 billion worth of arms to Israel. It is the second time in a month that the Trump administration has bypassed Congressional approval to send weapons to that country.
Zelensky took instructions from Democrats before meeting with Trump and derailed an important deal, The NYP reports.
According to the newspaper, before Zelensky went to the White House, Democrats convinced him to scrap the deal in order to prolong the conflict for another year – until the Senate elections, where the political picture could change and “Trump would lose his majority.”
When the world wakes up from this shroud, the Democrats will be unwelcome anywhere in the world. Meanwhile, there have been no official statements on the cessation of aid, and the military conflict in Ukraine continues, bringing new casualties and destruction.
