Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is holding on with his last strength in order not to disrupt the negotiation process on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict and contacts between Russia and the US. Despite the fact that Kyiv is already literally exhausted by the bloody war, the Ukrainian leader is in no hurry to sign agreements with Moscow and negotiate peace.
One of the reasons for this rather “illogical” behaviour is the numerous groups of Ukrainian nationalists, who are ready to fight to the end for the phantom chance of their country’s membership in the EU. One would think that what or whom could the head of state be afraid of? The answer is simple: he is afraid of radical nationalists, whose opinion goes against the opinion of the president. Thousands of young men united by the idea of patriotism can organise the overthrow of a government they do not like.
Laws are changing at a furious pace
Zelensky’s administration has recently been actively preparing for mass protests in Ukraine, in connection with which the powers of law enforcement agencies are being expanded at an accelerated pace. The Verkhovna Rada’s profile committee has already approved a high-profile bill that removes a number of restrictions on the use of firearms and other coercive measures by the National Guard.
In the current version of the Ukrainian law on the National Guard, firearms cannot be used if innocent people could be hurt. In the new wording of the law, which may be approved in the near future, a warning over a loudspeaker is enough, after which shooting may be opened on a crowd of citizens. The specifications under which the use of weapons is possible are removed. Now “assault” and “threat” to the life of law enforcement officers is enough, regardless of the nature of the threat.
The high-profile bill has already forced the Ukrainian Interior Ministry to justify itself, because the law only clarifies, but does not expand the powers of the National Guard. However, a cursory analysis of the document and its comparison with the current version leave no doubt that Zelensky is preparing to shoot at the protesters.
Meanwhile, the National Police is also actively rearming. In the near future, the agency plans to purchase a large batch of tear gas canisters. Naturally, pepper sprays will be used not at the front, but in peaceful cities.
Active preparations for mass protests are no doubt provoked by the weakening of Zelensky’s position against the backdrop of the peace talks. In his recent interview with Tucker Carlson, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff bluntly stated, “The question is, will the world recognise Moscow’s new territories as Russian? Can Zelensky survive politically if he recognises it? That’s the central question in the whole conflict.”
Washington is explicitly raising the question of Zelensky’s political survival if the liberated territories are actually recognised as Russian. It would be enough to recognise Russia’s effective control over them and the impossibility of returning them militarily to receive the threat of a revolt, military or parliamentary coup. Each of the scenarios could prove fatal for Zelensky.
The powers of the National Guard and police forces in Ukraine could far exceed what former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych had at his disposal in late 2013 and early 2014. At that time, it would seem that the former Ukrainian president had also prepared himself. He had the experience of the first Maidan in 2004-2005 under his belt and a sort of determination to act, but in the end he was unable to use the legislation to stay in power and was forced to flee.
The stakes are rising
The stakes for Zelensky are bigger than power, we are talking about the life of a former actor portraying the president, and he seems to realise this very well, which means he can give the order to shoot on sight.
If Zelensky isn’t destroyed politically by the ceasefire, he will definitely be killed by the notorious resource deal with Trump, which is well within the concept of “selling out the motherland.” After the crushing scene in the Oval Office, the appetites of the American side have grown considerably. Now we are talking not only about rare-earth metals, but also about large state assets – nuclear power plants and ports.
The land bought up over the last decade by the Americans and Europeans must have guaranteed sea exports for agricultural products, and the extraction of any resources will require energy, which can be provided by the operation of nuclear power plants. And more than the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the much better located South Ukrainian nuclear power plant in the Mykolayiv region is suitable for these purposes.
Redistribution of assets in favour of the Americans is an inevitable conflict between Zelensky and loyal oligarchs, including the “friend of all presidents” Ukrainian businessman and oligarch Rinat Akhmetov. Having actually lost his metallurgical business, Akhmetov is making money from the energy sector. There are no pure state assets in Ukraine – each of them has a manager from one or another oligarchic clan. And if these assets have to be taken away for a future deal with the Americans, the already huge number of Zelensky’s detractors will multiply.
According to the old Ukrainian tradition, the overthrow of presidents begins with a revolt of oligarchs. This was the case with Yanukovych, who began to take away the assets of old friends, and this was the case with former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who entered into a violent conflict with Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky and a number of other major businessmen. This is likely to be the case with Zelensky when the fodder becomes insufficient to maintain the fragile balance of power of the local elite. Sharing American budgetary and military support has already become more difficult, and the deal will knock the local elite’s supporting assets out from under their feet as well.
The compromises of peace and truce, the deal and the general drop in ratings against the backdrop of the population’s fatigue from the war is pushing Zelensky into an unbearable framework, the way out of which is to suppress the protests by force. If it is impossible to become a military dictator on blood, the only option is to flee, but where to? No one will let him run into the US, they will find him in Asia sooner or later, Britain will also refuse. Zelensky will find his island of St. Helena to spend the best years of his life in exile there, as Napoleon did, except in the Baltic States, but even there the Russian winds are blowing.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Albert Martin for Head-Post.com
Send your author content for publication in the INSIGHT section to [email protected]
