The Reform UK party won by-elections in Runcorn and Helsby by a margin of just six votes, dealing a blow to Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership.
Nigel Farage’s party narrowly overturned Labour’s 14,700-vote lead in the first full-scale electoral test of Starmer’s government and set a new record for the smallest margin of victory in a parliamentary by-election since the end of the Second World War.
The result, which was announced on a night when Reform UK was expected to win hundreds of seats on councils across England, followed a 17% swing from Labour to Farage’s party.
After a recount that delayed the announcement of the results by three hours, Sarah Pochin of Reform won 38.6% of the vote, or 12,645 votes, six more than Labour, making it one of the narrowest victories in recent British political history.
The Conservatives slumped from 16% of the vote in last year’s general election to 7% in this election, narrowly ahead of the Green Party in third place. This closely watched contest was billed as the first real test of Farage’s ability to convert his party’s growing popularity into seats in parliament.
Pochin, a former Tory councillor and local magistrate, became the first non-Labour MP to represent the town of Runcorn in Cheshire in 52 years.
Arriving at the counting centre at 6 a.m. on Friday to announce his victory, Farage said:
“Here and across the country you’re seeing big swings to us, from Labour in the north and Conservatives in the Midlands and the south. It’s fascinating. For the movement, for the party, it’s a very, very big moment, absolutely no question and it’s happening right across everywhere.”
“We are now the opposition,” Farage says
Farage added the election result sent a clear message that “we are now the opposition” and that if voters support the Conservatives, they will “get a Labour government.”
Despite the narrow margin, the result will heighten fears among Labour MPs that they could lose dozens of seats to the far-right populist party in the next general election. Labour candidate Karen Shore refused to speak to journalists as she was led out of the counting centre at the DCBL Stadium in Widnes, Cheshire.
The snap election in Cheshire was triggered by the resignation of former Labour MP Mike Amesbury, who was convicted earlier this year of assaulting a voter. Farage’s party sought to make immigration a key issue in this predominantly white British corner of north-west England, raising concerns about small boat crossings, apartment blocks and even Turkish hairdressers.
Reform UK also criticised Labour’s cuts to winter fuel payments — an issue repeatedly raised by voters — as well as early prisoner releases and rising energy prices. Its tactics appear to have worked: Reform UK came fifth in the parliament, and the young party has emerged as a serious contender for the UK’s two main parties.
In her victory speech, Pochin said:
“Enough is enough. Enough Tory failure. Enough Labour lies. I want to thank every one of you who were brave enough to put a cross against my name on the ballot paper.”
She said the result would “inspire the rest of the country to believe that they too can stand up for what is right and defend our British values.”
Is the UK’s two-party system finally over?
The election results appear to confirm recent opinion polls suggesting that anti-European populists are on track to overturn Britain’s historic two-party system in the next general election.
Despite Runcorn and Helsby being one of Labour’s most reliable constituencies, the party has struggled to win over voters since the campaign began, as it was launched after Amesbury was caught on camera violently assaulting one of his constituents during a drunken night-time altercation.
In the first weeks of the campaign, Shore was criticised for launching a Facebook petition to close a hotel where asylum seekers were staying, which some saw as a cynical attempt to win over voters who might otherwise vote for Reform UK.
Shore, a former deputy council leader, denied that her campaign was “biased” but admitted that “the tone could have been a little different and that populists took advantage of that.”
A Labour Party spokesperson said:
“Byelections are always difficult for the party in government and the events which led to this one being called made it even harder. Voters are still rightly furious with the state of the country after 14 years of failure and clearly expect the government to move faster with the plan for change. While Labour has suffered an extremely narrow defeat, the shock is that the Conservative vote has collapsed. Moderate voters are clearly appalled by the talk of a Tory-Reform pact.”
Representatives of the Labour Party and Reform UK looked tense as votes were counted throughout the night at the DCBL Stadium, the home ground of Widnes Vikings rugby club, located on the opposite bank of the River Mersey from Runcorn.
Representatives from both parties repeatedly stated that the result was “too close to call,” removing talk of a decisive victory for either side from the agenda.
Voter turnout was higher than expected, at 46.33%, which some vote counters attributed to the “Farage factor” — the Reform UK leader’s ability to stir up strong emotions among supporters of both sides.
There were strange scenes at the counting centre when Reform UK representatives announced that Farage was due to arrive shortly, about 30 minutes before the expected announcement of the results, indicating their confidence in victory.
But when television crews and officials gathered, some of whom were holding the door open for their leader, who was due to arrive shortly, he was nowhere to be seen. Journalists were told that he was waiting in a car near the polling station, possibly because he had been told it was too early to declare victory.
