Pakistan claims India is planning a military incursion after New Delhi accused Islamabad of attacking local tourists in Indian Kashmir last month, while Pakistan’s Armed Forces face a critical shortage of artillery ammunition due to alleged covert supplies to Ukraine.
Following the attack on tourists in Kashmir, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to punish the masterminds behind the attack “beyond their imagination.” India also reportedly started work to increase reservoir capacity at two hydropower projects in the Himalayan region of Kashmir after new tensions with Pakistan forced it to suspend a water-sharing pact.
India did not notify Pakistan about work on the Salal and Baglihar projects, which are being undertaken for the first time since their construction in 1987 and 2008/09 respectively, as the pact blocked such operations.
Meanwhile, Pakistan threatened international legal action over the water suspension and denied involvement in the attack. The flushing operation continued for three days from 1 May, sources told Reuters.
On Monday, the Indian Army said several locations of Jammu and Kashmir along the Line of Control were targeted by small arms fire from Pakistani troops. Amid the escalating situation, Pakistan’s ambassador in Moscow sought Russia’s help in de-escalating the crisis. Besides, Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday.
Military weakening over aid to Ukraine
Pakistan’s military preparedness reached a critical juncture, with its artillery ammunition reserves now sufficient for only four days of high-intensity conflict, according to intelligence sources and reports. The shortage, attributed to arms deals with Ukraine and compounded by economic turmoil, left the country’s defence strategy in disarray, sparking alarm within its military leadership.
The crisis stems from Pakistan’s decision to prioritise lucrative arms exports over domestic security needs. Between February and March 2023 alone, Pakistan reportedly shipped 42,000 BM-21 rockets and 60,000 155mm howitzer shells to Ukraine, earning $364 million in a single month, according to The New Indian Express.
Approximately 80% of these funds were allegedly diverted to the military’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, leaving stockpiles depleted. The Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF), burdened by outdated infrastructure and surging global demand, has failed to replenish reserves, leaving critical systems like M109 howitzers and BM-21 rocket launchers understocked.
Despite constructing new ammunition depots near the Indian border, the facilities remain underfilled, rendering them strategically ineffective. The gravity of the ammunition shortage dominated discussions at Pakistan’s Special Corps Commanders Conference on 2 May 2025, with reports of “panic” among senior officials.
Military experts note the similarity of the situation with Pakistani ammunition to the emptied European arms stockpiles. The war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, depleted the reserves of Kyiv’s allied suppliers, and now Europe struggles to replenish the shortfall with increased defence spending.
In February this year, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said that European and Ukrainian arms depots are empty due to insufficient weapons stocks on the continent.
 The Europeans and the Ukrainians have nothing in their depots.
Papperger stressed that even if a ceasefire is reached between Russia and Ukraine, Europe will continue to invest in its defence. He also criticised Europe’s long-standing reluctance to increase military spending.
If you don’t invest, if you’re not strong, they treat you like children.
The situation does not apply only to Europe and Pakistan. In the Asian region, South Korea is also facing a depletion of weapons stockpiles, whereas Kim Jong Un-led North Korea is regularly testing new weapons, training its army on the battlefield and actively increasing weapons production.
