The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) published its annual report, “WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029),” according to which there is an 86% probability that global temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900) in at least one of the coming years. This is not just an abstract forecast — it is a temperature threshold identified in the Paris Agreement as critical for preventing the most devastating effects of climate change.
Temperature rise is inevitable
According to the WMO, each of the next five years is highly likely to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels. In addition, there is an 80% chance that one of these years will exceed 2024, which was the warmest year on record.
At the same time, there is a 70% probability that the five-year average will also exceed 1.5°C. The authors emphasise that long-term warming, averaged over several decades, has not yet crossed the 1.5°C threshold, but trends indicate an inevitable convergence towards it.
An annual exceedance of 2°C remains unlikely (1%), but such a probability has been noted as non-zero for the first time. The report pays particular attention to the Arctic. According to the forecast, the average temperature anomaly in the region during the winter period (November to March) will be 2.4°C, which is more than 3.5 times higher than the global average deviation.
Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are expected in the next five years, particularly in the Barents, Bering and Okhotsk Seas. The climate model also predicts abnormally wet conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia between May and September 2025–2029. At the same time, drought is likely to prevail in the Amazon basin.
Climate change in South Asia
Forecasts for South Asia indicate a continuation of the series of abnormally wet monsoons, with the exception of 2023, which was an exception to this trend. Atmospheric pressure indicators show consistently low values over Antarctica and weak development of the Aleutian Low, which is consistent with the ongoing La Niña phenomena observed in recent years. At the same time, these anomalies are expected to weaken in the eastern Pacific Ocean in 2025.
Against the backdrop of these global changes, the report highlights the importance of regional climate forecasts. For example, lower pressure is predicted for the Mediterranean and surrounding countries, which could affect weather anomalies in southern Europe and North Africa.
What to expect for the Atlantic region
In the Atlantic region, experts estimate that there is a high probability of a positive phase of Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) associated with prolonged warming of surface waters.The report notes that its predictions are based on 220 ensemble models developed by fourteen international centres, including the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre and the British Meteorological Office. The forecasts are based on data recorded in November 2024 and January 2025, as well as retrospective calculations from 1960 to 2018.
The projected trends in precipitation and temperature, as scientists emphasise, are consistent with climate scenarios assuming continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions. However, the WMO cautions that the data presented are not ready-made forecasts for each country, but rather a reference point for national meteorological services and regional climate centres. They must adapt global estimates to local conditions and needs. Despite the high accuracy of some models, especially for temperature, predictions for precipitation, pressure and sea ice in Antarctica are less reliable.
The quality of predictions is assessed through retrospective comparisons, which allows us to judge with some confidence the reliability of calculations for future periods. According to the WMO, exceeding climate thresholds in the coming years is not so much a question of probability as of time. The future of the planet’s climate stability depends on how countries respond to such warnings.
