A potential conflict of national interests over Ukrainian refugees must be foreseen and avoided, according to Social Europe.
The war in Ukraine has forced millions of its citizens to flee their homes in search of asylum, including abroad. According to the latest estimates, the majority of refugees have found shelter in Europe – 5.8 million out of 6.2 million people registered worldwide. Among all EU countries, Poland received the largest number of refugees – 1.6 million, Germany – 1.1 million.
Since the beginning of the war, Ukrainians have had no problems integrating into German society: visa-free entry, temporary residence without asylum procedures, employment opportunities – 18% of Ukrainian refugees have already found jobs.
Even if Ukrainians remain unemployed in Germany for the first time, Â they receive higher social benefits than in Ukraine and are directly integrated into the support structures of employment centres. This official hospitality, as well as the presence of relatives and/or friends in Germany for many Ukrainian refugees, has created favourable conditions for a more dynamic integration than those who were forced to move in the past. However, will this always be the case or only as long as there is war in Ukraine?
Ukraine had been in a state of deep demographic decline long before the war began. Compared to 1991, its population dropped significantly from 52 to 42 million people. The war further aggravated the already dire situation, so after the war ends, Ukraine will try to bring back most of its citizens, Social Europe reports.
However, Berlin is experiencing a significant labour shortage: almost two million jobs were empty in the last quarter of 2022. There is an acute shortage of medical workers, carpenters, butchers and other labourers – even in the IT sector, the shortage is estimated at 100,000 people.
German authorities recognise that a shortage of qualified personnel could plunge the country into a period of economic stagnation for a long time. At the East German Economic Forum in June, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the country would not be able to fill the labour shortage with its domestic resources alone.
Germany is unlikely to abandon Ukrainian refugees overnight, having invested so much in integrating them, who are predominantly female and otherwise mostly young, healthy, educated and motivated. Moreover, the government endeavours to do everything possible to ensure that Ukrainians who have fully integrated into the host society remain living in Germany, according to Social Europe.
The longer the war lasts and Ukrainian refugees stay abroad, the more they integrate in new places and the less they plan to return home. However, it is vital for Ukraine to fight for every refugee, and oddly enough, Germany can help it do so.
Firstly, Germany’s investments in Ukraine, both during and after the war, can not only have a positive impact on the return of Ukrainians, but also be of interest to Berlin. Direct investment in Ukraine to rebuild and support its socio-economic potential, in parallel with the war industry, would expand the scope and influence of German capital in Eastern Europe. Wages in enterprises with German investment will be lower than if such enterprises were opened and operated in Germany, but high by Ukrainian standards. It is even conceivable that in such a situation the German government would go so far as to encourage some Ukrainian refugees to return home and take up employment in its enterprises in Ukraine. At any rate, modern German industries in the country, associated with decent wages, would have brought back Ukrainian refugees from other, less wealthy European countries. Ukraine would undoubtedly be very interested in this as well.
Germany is already moving in this direction. In May, Rheinmetall announced plans to establish a joint venture with the Ukrainian state conglomerate Ukroboronprom to produce and repair armoured vehicles in Ukraine.
Secondly, although Germany has a constant need for foreign labour, it will encourage the return home after the war of Ukrainian refugees who have not been able to fully integrate into German society. The Swiss repatriation programme can serve as a model here.
The Swiss government is already developing a strategy for the return of what it expects to be 80 per cent of Ukrainian refugees. It envisages a return period of six to nine months after the cancellation of temporary protection. Financial assistance of 1,000-4,000 Swiss francs (1,050-4,200 euros) per person is being considered, depending on the period of departure. It is likely that the German government will eventually develop a similar repatriation strategy, the implementation of which would be welcomed by Ukraine.
Ukrainian refugees should be given a real, not theoretical, chance to receive housing after returning home. The war has turned entire towns in Ukraine into ruins. No one will want to return to an empty place.
Providing a plot of land for building a house can be a strong incentive. Sooner or later the ruins will have to be redeveloped, and refugees could be involved in this process. An interest-free mortgage scheme for housing should also be developed. The government’s promise to provide refugees with flats in new flat blocks built after the war could be a decisive factor in the return of refugees.
Lump sum repatriation payments: The Ukrainian government could act similarly to its Swiss counterparts, but instead of paying refugees to leave the country, do the opposite – pay them to return. The amount of assistance could vary depending on the circumstances (e.g. family reunification or single person return). Such a programme may involve several payments to refugees over a period of time while they look for housing, employment, etc.
Large-scale investment projects attracting foreign capital to Ukraine will indirectly increase the flow of returning refugees in the medium and long term. Naturally, it will be difficult for the government to attract foreign investors for post-war reconstruction: it will have to find special arguments and guarantees for serious money to be invested in a war-torn country with a missing population. But if it succeeds, the possible post-war “Ukrainian economic miracle” will stimulate large-scale returns, according to Social Europe.
Without the help of international financial institutions and partner countries, it will be very difficult for Kyiv to cope with the comprehensive reconstruction and implementation of the proposed repatriation programmes without assistance. Germany can be and should be among the leaders of this process, as it is also in its national interest.
After all, it will not only strengthen the strategic partnership between Berlin and Kyiv for many years to come. It will also cement Germany’s creative leadership in a Europe and a world on the cusp of an era of global change.
