The sudden escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has forced the entire world to consider a single question: what is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trying to achieve? He is not even hiding his plan: the Iranians must rise up against the “rule of the ayatollahs,” resulting in Iran being led by a leader friendly to the US and Israel.
Attempt to overthrow the regime in Iran
To push the Iranians in this direction, Israel will bomb not only nuclear and military facilities, but also kill the country’s military and political leaders, destroy energy facilities, including oil storage facilities, and strike government buildings, combining this with terrorist attacks carried out from Iranian territory, including attempts to kill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If the scenario of a change of power does not work, the start of inter-ethnic unrest and the collapse of the country with the participation, in particular, of Iranian Azerbaijanis and Baluchis will suffice.
In any case, Israel’s goal is to eliminate the current Islamic Republic of Iran as such — either through a change in the political system or through the collapse of the country. The realism of this scenario can be assessed as close to zero, but Netanyahu apparently has a different opinion. He constantly appeals to the Iranian people, and Israeli propaganda tries in every way to portray Khamenei as a “bloody dictator” who the majority of Iranians dream of overthrowing.
The fact that Israel believes in the likelihood of such a scenario is very dangerous in itself — after all, this state possesses nuclear weapons and may well use them against Iran if it believes that this will be the last straw for the collapse of the Iranian regime or an uprising of the indignant masses against Khamenei.
Nuclear issue
Of course, the use of nuclear weapons against a country that was attacked allegedly because of its intention to build an atomic bomb would be beyond cynical, but during Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, everyone has become accustomed to the fact that there is no crime that Tel Aviv would not try to justify with its “right to defend itself against a new Holocaust.”
At the same time, even the use of nuclear weapons against Iran will not allow Israel to achieve its goal — Iran will not collapse, and the Islamic Republic will not be swept away by the masses. Just as the assassination of Khamenei will not give Israel the security it desires, which is presented as the main reason for attacking Iran.
No way back for Netanyahu
After using nuclear weapons, Israel would not only find itself internationally isolated, with the exception of its main partner, the US, but would also pave the way for an Iranian atomic bomb, and no one in the world would be able to object to Tehran obtaining nuclear weapons. And it will not matter how long it takes — a year or five — the Iranians will get an atomic bomb. It will not be used against Israel, but it will become a sword of Damocles hanging over it. However, does Netanyahu understand this? Of course, but this only strengthens his determination to carry out the maximum programme. On June 13, he crossed the Rubicon — and there is no turning back. Another thing is that, in his view, he will be able to implement this programme with the help of the United States — and then there will be no need to use nuclear weapons.
The US must defeat Iran, destroying not only its nuclear and missile programmes, but also breaking its will to resist. Washington must bring Iran to its knees, as it did with Iraq, but without a ground operation and occupation. The US is currently not at all inclined to get involved in a major war in the Middle East, but bombing and bleeding Iran may seem possible to Trump — or rather, necessary, if Netanyahu manages to bring him to such a situation.
Possible provocations by Israel
At present, Trump is categorically opposed to direct US involvement in attacks on Iran, and Tehran has no intention of succumbing to provocation and striking American bases in the region. But Israel is a master of provocation, and nothing can be ruled out, including the sinking of an American warship by an “Iranian missile,” which would be a pretext for America to enter the war. But even in this case, the only thing that is guaranteed is a major conflagration in the region — attacks on American bases in the Persian Gulf countries and Iraq, strikes on Iranian targets with American missiles and bombs.
Iran will suffer enormous damage, but even then, it is impossible to predict any change of regime. Without occupying the country, which the Americans will not even attempt to do, it is pointless to hope to “remove the mullahs.” So what do we have? Netanyahu attacked Iran in order to kill a few dozen senior Iranian military officials, destroy part of the air defence system and bomb military facilities? The nuclear programme has not been eliminated, the regime has not been changed, but hatred for Israel has spread even among those who were indifferent to it.
Fictitious Iranian nuclear threat
Even if Iran agrees to a deal with the US on terms that are tougher for itself (which will not happen — a deal can only be concluded on condition that the nuclear programme is preserved), how will this strengthen Israel’s security? Tehran was already prepared for a deal, which was derailed by pro-Israel forces in Washington and then by Netanyahu himself with his strike on June 13. Now Iran will be bent on revenge against Israel, which it will prepare even without nuclear weapons.
Until last week, Netanyahu was guilty of the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza, and now he is also guilty of an unprovoked attack on Iran. He has nowhere to retreat — even if he stops (under pressure from the Americans) the attacks on Iran, Netanyahu will remain in a complete deadlock in Gaza: he does not want to withdraw his troops from there, and in order to squeeze all the Palestinians into the part of the sector allocated to them, he will have to kill many thousands more, which even Europe cannot stand by and watch in silence.
The lies about the Iranian nuclear threat, which were used to justify aggression and attempts to change the regime, have been combined with lies about the “liberation of hostages” and “self-defence” in Gaza, which have become a cover for the actual destruction of the Palestinians — and the image of the most cruel and dangerous man in the world has been complete. Netanyahu will, of course, declare victory over both Iran and Gaza, but in reality this will not bring him the results he desires.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Abd al-Latif Ghulam for Head-Post.com
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