The Israeli-Iranian war began with intense clashes on the 11th day. Israel targeted Iran’s military infrastructure in the city of Kermanshah with missiles, while Tel Aviv faced widespread criticism of its military actions against Tehran, and the threat of nuclear weapons use still hangs in the air.
Global condemnation of US, Israel
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the US’ attack on Iran and the strikes on nuclear facilities under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasised that the US strikes on Iran seriously violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and international law, and exacerbate tensions in the Middle East. Beijing calls on all parties to the conflict, especially Israel, to cease fire as soon as possible and start negotiations between the parties.
Russia has openly stated its position on the conflict between Iran and Israel, which is an important show of support for Tehran, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.
Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the US strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran. “Russia strongly condemns the strikes carried out by the United States at dawn on June 22 on a number of nuclear facilities in Iran, following Israeli attacks on the Islamic Republic,” the ministry said in a statement.
The ministry also noted that this “irresponsible decision… grossly violates international law” as well as the UN Charter and UN Security Council resolutions. “It is particularly alarming that the strikes were carried out by a country that is a permanent member of the UN Security Council,” the ministry added.
Trump threatens regime change in Iran
US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of regime change in Iran after American military strikes on key Iranian military targets over the weekend, despite senior members of his administration insisting that the US is not seeking to overthrow the Iranian leadership.
At the same time, the world’s chief “peacemaker” paraphrased the slogan of his movement – MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) to MIGA (“Make Iran Great Again”), further provoking Tehran and effectively showing that this term can be adapted to any country.
“It’s not politically correct to use the term, “Regime Change,'” but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!” Trump wrote in a post on his social media platform Truth Social on Sunday evening.
Earlier, Vice President JD Vance insisted that the US “is not at war with Iran, we are at war with Iran’s nuclear programme,” while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that America “does not seek war in Iran.”
Iranian FM arrives in Moscow
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Moscow on Monday to discuss with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other officials regional and international issues related to the US and Israeli strikes on the Islamic Republic.
Meanwhile, the US has expressed dissatisfaction with Araghchi’s decision to go to Moscow for talks instead of Washington. According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, after the American strikes, Tehran should itself seek a meeting with the Trump administration to negotiate peace. Instead, the Iranian foreign minister is heading to Moscow for talks with the Russian leadership.
At the same time, he acknowledged that he could not raise any objections to Araghchi’s visit to Russia, as it was a pre-planned meeting and not a spontaneous decision.
“So I saw the foreign minister, instead of meeting with Steve Witkoff, is headed to Moscow to meet with Putin, which was a pre-scheduled meeting, which is fine, you know they can go meet,” Rubio said.
Gulf countries fear destabilisation in the region
Gulf countries are now assessing the consequences of a potential war between Israel and Iran, including the risk of attacks on their oil infrastructure and the disruption of their economic development plans, as well as the possibility of the collapse of the Islamic Republic’s religious-political regime.
The leaders of the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf are working to use their economic and political influence to bring diplomacy and negotiations back on track, but their position is complicated by Trump’s demands and the risk of being drawn into the conflict.
The authorities of the United Arab Emirates have expressed serious concern about the escalation of tensions in the region following the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. A statement by the UAE Foreign Ministry emphasises the need to immediately stop further escalation and move towards resolving differences through dialogue and diplomacy.
In addition, the UAE has called for the creation of comprehensive mechanisms to promote stability and justice in the region. Given that regional instability also threatens global security, the UAE Foreign Ministry has called on the international community to intensify efforts to achieve long-term stability.
The Strait of Hormuz – a threat of closure
The Iranian parliament has decided to close the Strait of Hormuz. On June 22, after US strikes on the republic’s nuclear facilities, the Iranian parliament had decided to close the Strait of Hormuz. The final decision rests with Iran’s Security Council, but the US has already threatened to escalate the conflict and involve “other countries” in a war with Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage on a key route for oil exports from the Persian Gulf countries, and its blockade could cause a sharp rise in oil prices and halt a fifth of global oil product exports.
Experts note that this sea route is one of the busiest in the world, with 200-300 ships passing through it every day, which can be as frequent as every six minutes during peak hours. In total, this strait accounts for more than 20% of global maritime oil trade and 30% of liquefied natural gas supplies, which is why the US Department of Energy calls it the most important route for transporting hydrocarbon raw materials in the world.
The Strait of Hormuz is used to transport oil from Persian Gulf countries such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE to Asian markets. After the US attack on targets in Iran, 17 oil tankers immediately left the Persian Gulf due to the danger of the channel being blocked. Only three ships decided to enter it.
According to the Marine Traffic website, ships leaving the Persian Gulf were moving in groups due to fears of being stopped. In addition, 37 ships were standing off the Strait of Hormuz, trying to assess the danger of entering the Persian Gulf. At the same time, the British-flagged tanker Mountains of Maru changed course in the Strait of Hormuz and headed south.
The United States has called on the Chinese authorities to persuade Iran not to block the Strait of Hormuz, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an interview with Fox News.
“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,” he said. The head of the State Department also warned that blocking the strait would be a major escalation of the conflict and would entail retaliatory measures by the United States.
Satellite images of the Fordow nuclear facility
Some interesting photos of the Fordow nuclear facility have appeared on the internet, showing a major logistical operation taking place a few days before the US attack.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that the authorities had removed most of the enriched uranium from the plant before the attack. In addition, most of the personnel were evacuated. As noted by AP, satellite images show possible damage to the entrances to the underground facility. The images also show holes in the mountain under which the complex is located.
The Iranian news agency Tasnim stated that the Fordow facility had only suffered partial damage as a result of the American strikes.
Judging by the traces of the strikes, the B-2 Spirit strategic bombers did not target the entrances to the nuclear facility, but attempted to penetrate the rock to destroy the uranium enrichment plant itself. The craters left by bunker-buster bombs may be small in size, as the explosion itself occurs several dozen metres below the surface.
According to analysts, the target of the strikes could have been a cascade hall housing centrifuges for uranium enrichment. Experts believe that this would have required at least two bombs to hit the same spot. Judging by the images, this was not achieved.
The attack caused damage to the surface, blocked the entrances to the tunnels, and left a grey-blue haze around the complex. The US authorities have no idea where the enriched uranium removed from Iranian nuclear facilities before the bombing is located. According to the most conservative estimates, the amount of radioactive material is sufficient to produce 8-10 nuclear warheads.
Washington doesn’t know the fate of Iran’s uranium stockpile
After Trump’s statement that Iran’s nuclear programme had been completely destroyed, senior officials in Washington admitted that they did not know where the uranium enriched in Iran had gone, according to The New York Times.
“We are going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel and that’s one of the things that we’re going to have conversations with the Iranians about,” Vice President JD Vance told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday.
Tehran, for its part, said it was not interested in talks with Washington after the US air strike on its nuclear facilities.
After the American strike on the Fordow nuclear facility, most US media outlets actively promoted the idea that “GBU-57 super-heavy bombs” were used as a means of guaranteed destruction of any deep underground target. However, this confidence is based on a systemic inaccuracy that is repeatedly reproduced from source to source and creates a false impression of the true capabilities of American weapons.
The GBU-57 is a guided but free-falling bomb weighing about 13.6 tonnes, which has no propulsion system and falls solely under the force of gravity. It is dropped from a great height (probably around 10-12 km), but its effectiveness depends directly on specific conditions: the geometry of the target, soil density, rock composition, the altitude of the carrier aircraft, and whether or not the target has been prepared for the strike.
Under perfect conditions, the declared penetration depth into reinforced concrete is up to 60 metres. But it’s not that simple. According to various sources, the Fordow facility was built by the Iranians inside a rock mass, at a depth of 85 to 90 metres. Above the main hall, there were presumably several protective layers of reinforced concrete, around which dense rock still remained.
The rock probably acted as a damper: it dissipates the impact and hinders the passage of the munition, reducing its penetration effectiveness. Judging by published maps of the mountain ranges in the Fordow area, there are basalt rocks, which are difficult to penetrate even with such powerful ammunition as GBU-57. Nevertheless, visualisations and promotional materials accompanying reports on the operation paint a different picture. They show the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) burrows dozens of metres of rock and reaching underground chambers.
Such a model of operation corresponds more to fantasy kinematics than to the real physical capabilities of the device. In reality, the MOP can destroy ventilation shafts, entrance galleries and ceilings, but it cannot guarantee the destruction of the interior of the complex. Given that no independent evidence of the destruction of the Fordow core itself has been presented, the conclusion about the success of the strike remains political rather than technical.
Speaking about the fact that Fordow was located at a depth of 90 metres, it is important to understand that this is the figure cited by American officials. So at this point, the likelihood of this facility remaining intact is extremely high, despite all the statements from the US about the success of the strikes.
Fresh strikes by Iran against Israel
On Sunday, during strikes against Israel, Iran used a Kheibarshekan ballistic missile with a multi-warhead for the first time, the localy reported, citing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The multi-warhead ballistic missiles “Kheibarshekan,” the third generation of missiles of the IRGC Aerospace Force, were launched for the first time in Sunday’s strike,” the IRGC said.
These missiles can manoeuvre to evade air defence missiles, are highly accurate and have increased destructive power. The flight of the missile can be controlled until it hits its target. Their range is up to 2,000 km.
According to the IRGC, a total of 40 solid-fuel and liquid-fuel ballistic missiles were launched at targets in Israel on Sunday. The missiles hit various targets, including Ben Gurion Airport, a biological research centre and command and control centres.
Outcome of Israeli attacks on Iran
What did the Americans achieve with their night strike on three targets in Iran? According to local media reports, critical nuclear infrastructure appears to have suffered little or no damage. The enrichment of nuclear materials, and now we can say directly, and the future production of nuclear weapons, will continue, with a number of countries ready to directly supply Iran with their nuclear warheads.
Iran’s political regime has been preserved, and in all likelihood it has become stronger. The entire territory of Israel is under attack, explosions are rumbling, people are in panic.
The United States is embroiled in a new conflict with the prospect of a ground operation, and Trump, who came to power as a peacemaker, has started a new war for the US. The vast majority of countries in the world are against the actions of Israel and the US.
A scenario in which Iran, after strikes on its nuclear infrastructure, chooses the path of North Korea seems quite realistic. This is especially true if it is seen as a survival strategy in the face of constant external threats.
Iran is now becoming a punching bag. It was foolish of those doing the punching to allow this to happen, as the consequences will be dire. After the strikes, their programme will go even further underground. Underground nuclear programmes are nothing new. North Korea has been doing this for decades.
Iran already has underground complexes, such as Fordow, dual-use facilities that are formally civilian but in reality military, and extensive experience in circumventing international restrictions. At the same time, a complete rejection of IAEA inspections and co-operation with Western structures has already been voiced in the Iranian political arena, and it may well be the first step in this direction.
The North Korean model may seem to Iran to be the only option: no one attacks the DPRK because it has nuclear weapons. In the eyes of the Iranian leadership, this may look like a direct instruction to act: either you build a bomb and get a guarantee of immunity, or you will once again become a target.
Iran’s likely path now looks like this: winding down inspections, openly resuming uranium enrichment above 60%, restoring research centres, testing missiles — and eventually, perhaps, conducting an underground nuclear test, as the DPRK did in 2006.
Only a few factors can hold Iran back: fear of a full-scale war, the loss of its last channels of economic life, and pressure from China or Russia, which do not want a nuclear crisis in the Middle East. But increasingly, these factors may lose out to the internal logic of survival: if they have already struck, then we really need the bomb.
The likelihood of direct war between Israel and Iran will increase. Iran may follow in the footsteps of North Korea not out of a desire to attack, but as the only defence against being attacked again. Thus, Donald Trump, who previously wanted to go down in history as the president who brought peace to the world, is unlikely to achieve his goal, effectively bringing the world to the brink of nuclear war.
