An unprecedented political crisis is unfolding in Thailand: Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been temporarily suspended from her duties by a Constitutional Court ruling, Asian media reported on Tuesday.
Accusations against Paetongtarn Shinawatra
The petition, initiated by 36 senators, calls on the court to investigate the circumstances surrounding the leak of an audio recording of a telephone conversation between Shinawatra and Hun Sen, the president of the Cambodian Senate. The senators also insist that the prime minister be temporarily suspended from office for the duration of the trial.
In the published recording, Shinawatra makes disparaging remarks about the commander of the 2nd Army District, calling him her enemy. In addition, in a conversation with Hun Sen, she expresses her willingness to unconditionally comply with his demands, which, according to the authors of the petition, demonstrates a lack of qualifications and integrity as required by Articles 160 (4) and (5) of the Thai Constitution. She is accused of dishonest conduct and actions that constitute a serious breach of ethical standards.
If the court accepts the petition for consideration, it may issue an order temporarily suspending the prime minister from her duties. Although this would not be a final decision on the case, it would be the first step in the judicial review process and would likely raise questions about Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s credibility.
Protests opposing Shinawatra
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Innovation for Democracy Office at the King Prajadhipok Institute, noted in an interview with the Bangkok Post that the suspension order could temporarily ease public pressure. However, in his opinion, if Shinawatra is not removed, public protests could intensify and the political situation could escalate.
According to the widely discussed composition of the cabinet, the Pheu Thai Party, led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, appears to be preparing for the possible removal of the prime minister from office. She is also expected to take the post of culture minister in the upcoming reshuffle.
“The interim prime minister will take over until the court’s decision, and this process could take one or two months,” Stithorn Thananithichot said. He also added that the government has fewer and fewer options, and that the dissolution of the House of Representatives will ultimately be inevitable, even before the Thai Party’s candidate for prime minister, Chaikasem Nitisiri, can be nominated.
Thailand’s political crisis
In the worst case, he said, Pheu Thai may have to revive the Bhumjaithai Party and agree to support its leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, as prime minister.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of the Faculty of Political Science and Law at Burapha University, believes that the court will accept the petition for consideration, as the leak of the audio recording is widely perceived as undermining the legitimacy and public trust in the prime minister. However, Olarn Thinbangtieo admitted that the court may allow Paetongtarn Shinawatra to remain in office.
“With the cabinet reshuffle in full swing and royal approval not yet received, removing her now would raise questions such as who would formally respond to the royal order,” he said.
Pheu Thai Party MP Wisut Chainarun on Monday downplayed speculation about Shinawatra’s possible dismissal, but stressed that the party must be prepared for any court decision.
Possible consequences of the crisis
In response to a recent public opinion poll showing a decline in the prime minister’s popularity, Wisut Chainarun said the poll was conducted earlier and that public opinion has improved as more people understand the context of the conversation between Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Hun Sen.
He also noted that street protests against the prime minister are part of the democratic process, but called on protesters not to call for a military coup or block roads, disrupting the work of the government.
The outcome of this case will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the political situation in Thailand and may lead to early elections or a change in the ruling coalition.
Thailand’s political stability is also important for Russia, given the development of economic ties and tourism between the two countries. Any serious political turmoil could affect the investment climate and Thailand’s appeal to Russian tourists.
