Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has said his country will apply tariffs on US imports if Donald Trump enacts a proposed 50% tax on Brazilian products. Trump’s threat relates to Brazil’s ongoing criminal trial against former President Jair Bolsonaro, a political ally of his.
Lula said Brazil would use a reciprocity law passed by Congress earlier this year. This would only happen if talks with the US fail.
“If there is no negotiation, the reciprocity law will apply,” Lula told TV Record. “If he charges us 50%, we will charge them 50%. Respect is good, I offer mine and expect it back.”
The comments raise the possibility of a trade conflict between the two nations. This mirrors past tensions between the US and China. Trump has warned he will respond forcefully if other countries retaliate with their own tariffs.
Parliament supports reciprocal action
Brazil’s Senate President, Davi Alcolumbre, and Chamber of Deputies Speaker, Hugo Motta, supported the reciprocity law. They often clash with Lula but agreed it helps protect Brazil’s interests.
“We are ready to act with calm and firmness,” they said. “We will defend our economy, industry, and jobs.”
Trump posted a letter to Brazil on social media. In it, he criticised Bolsonaro’s trial and announced new tariffs starting 1 August. The move adds another chapter to Trump’s history of using tariffs as a political tool. He has used them in the past to target fentanyl trafficking and digital service taxes.
Tensions tied to Bolsonaro trial
In this case, Trump seems focused on influencing Bolsonaro’s trial. Both men face similar accusations: attempting to overturn election results. Bolsonaro claims Brazil’s Supreme Court is persecuting him.
“There’s nothing Lula or Brazil can do about the trial,” said Carlos Melo, a political scientist at Insper University in São Paulo. “Changing course would mean surrender. The case will go on.”
Lula told diplomats to return Trump’s letter if it reaches the presidential palace in Brasília. The letter criticises Brazil’s judiciary and recent rulings on social media companies. Trump argues these are reasons for new import taxes.
He invoked the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify the tariffs. He says the US trade deficit is a crisis. But current data shows the US has a trade surplus with Brazil, weakening his argument.
A Brazilian foreign ministry official told the Associated Press that ongoing trade talks are now “up in the air” after Trump’s recent comments.
Reactions and political impacts
Some officials believe Trump’s move targets Brazil’s ties with other Southern Hemisphere economies. At the recent BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Lula spoke again about creating an alternative currency to the US dollar. This idea often draws criticism from Trump.
“Trump never cared about democracy, much less Bolsonaro’s fate,” said Gleisi Hoffmann, Brazil’s Minister for Institutional Relations.
Trump’s interference has briefly united Brazil’s usually divided political landscape. Some Bolsonaro allies blamed Lula’s foreign policies for Trump’s anger. Others urged caution and calm in handling the dispute.
Even O Estado de S. Paulo, a frequent critic of Lula, condemned Trump’s approach. In its editorial, the paper called Trump’s actions “a mafia tactic” and said Lula’s response was justified.
Legal questions and election implications
Analysts believe Trump’s involvement may hurt Bolsonaro more than help him. It could also strengthen Lula, whose approval ratings have dropped in recent months.
“This is a political gift to Lula,” said Andre Pagliarini, a historian at Louisiana State University. “It lets him control the story.”
Political consultant and former minister Thomas Traumann agreed.
“Trump put Lula back in the game,” Traumann said. “Now Lula has a clear story. Any economic fallout can be blamed on Bolsonaro.”
In May, the US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump went beyond his powers by imposing tariffs without Congress. His team is appealing. Critics plan to use Trump’s Brazil letter as further evidence in their case.
“This is a blatant attempt to misuse trade policy for personal revenge,” said Senator Ron Wyden, a Democrat from Oregon. “It goes beyond legal authority.”
US officials claim recent tariffs have not hurt the economy, citing falling inflation. But some businesses stockpiled goods ahead of time. Economists warn that once those stocks run low, prices could rise and growth may slow.
Concerns grow around Bolsonaro’s future
Trump’s interest in Bolsonaro’s trial has added pressure. Reports suggest Brazilian lawmakers and judges fear Bolsonaro may try to flee the country if convicted.
His son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, moved to the US in March. On social media, he thanked Trump for his support.
In his TV interview, Lula said Bolsonaro should be held responsible for Trump’s proposed tariffs.
“He sent his son to convince Trump. Then Trump writes a letter about a Supreme Court case,” Lula said. “This isn’t politics. It’s about the legal evidence under review.”
