The overall business climate indicator in Bulgaria rose to 21.7% in June 2025, which is 1.9 percentage points higher than the previous month and indicates generally positive sentiment across various sectors of the economy.
According to data from the Bulgarian National Statistical Institute (NSI), the improvement was driven by more optimistic assessments and expectations in construction, retail trade and services, while there were virtually no changes in industry over the month.
Entrepreneurs in the industrial sector assessed the current business situation as “favourable,” but expectations for the next three months remained cautious. Labour shortages combined with uncertainty in the business environment are considered the main obstacles to growth in this sector.
Construction sector
The construction sector showed significant growth compared to the previous month: the business climate index rose by 2.8 points to 26.1%.
Construction companies are “positive” about their current activities and expect them to remain stable over the next three months. However, more than two-fifths (43.2%) of companies in this sector cite labour shortages as a problem, followed by economic uncertainty and the cost of materials.
Retail sector
The retail sector showed the greatest improvement in the business climate compared to the previous month, with the indicator rising by 3.6 points to 30.4%. The data show that retailers assess current business conditions positively but are “cautious” about future sales and supplier orders. Economic uncertainty was identified as the most pressing problem, overtaking market competition, while the share of retailers expecting price increases in the sector over the next three months is growing.
Services sector
Finally, in the services sector (excluding trade), the indicator rose by 3.0 points to 15.4%, with businesses expressing optimism about current business conditions and demand, but expectations for the next three months were more cautious.
The most frequently mentioned problem for service sector companies was economic uncertainty, followed by market competition and labour shortages. Many industry representatives also noted slight price increases.
Eurozone effect on business climate
According to the Fiscal Council’s analysis, more than half of the Bulgarian economy will immediately feel the positive effects of the transition from the lev to the euro on January 1. Export-oriented sectors that currently trade in euros will be the first to benefit.
There will also be significant benefits for tourism and the government. However, businesses warn that the currency change will provide opportunities, but companies will only benefit if they take advantage of them.
According to the Fiscal Council’s analysis, the first sectors to feel the positive changes will be banking, industry, tourism, information technology and public administration. The three main advantages of the euro are the elimination of currency risk, transaction costs and slightly easier financing.
Investor interest in the country is expected to increase in the last six months before the adoption of the euro, as experience in other countries has shown.
