New measures tightening migration policy show how the German Chancellor and his allies are grasping at straws, POLITICO reports.
With less than two years left in Olaf Scholz’s first term and the government struggling to cope with a more than 70 per cent rise in asylum applications in 2023, Germany’s famously restrained chancellor is using hyperbole.
Scholz spoke to reporters Tuesday after agreeing with regional leaders to revise asylum rules:
“I don’t want to use big words but I think this is a historic moment.”
He may be right, if only because there is a possibility that he will remain in history as an inept politician who cannot achieve greater reforms.
For months, Olaf Scholz has been working on measures to reduce the number of asylum seekers arriving in Germany. Many Germans see the task as increasingly urgent amid a recent spate of anti-Semitic incidents, many of which conservative politicians blame on migrants. Scholz’s coalition is so concerned about the sharp rise in anti-Jewish hate crimes that Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, who like most of his Green Party colleagues is a long-time defender of asylum rights, has threatened to deport criminals who do not have a residence permit, according to POLITICO.
Germany is expected to receive the largest number of asylum seekers this year since the height of the 2015 migration crisis triggered by the Syrian civil war. With more than three million refugees already living in the country, including a large number of Ukrainians – the highest number since waves of ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe poured into Germany after World War II – Scholz faces huge pressure from overburdened states and municipalities to ease the practical burdens they face.
But the latest agreement to do so, signed this week between Scholz and the leaders of Germany’s 16 states, shows the extent to which the chancellor and his allies are simply grasping at straws.
The latest package includes a raft of cosmetic measures, such as longer waiting times for German social security and a plan to issue refugee benefits on debit cards instead of cash. The “new” initiative also contains the usual promises to speed up asylum and deportation applications, strengthen border controls and continue talks with countries in Africa and elsewhere to stem the flow of asylum seekers.
The goal of reducing the number of refugees remains elusive, although states have achieved their goal of receiving more money from the federal government to pay for refugee admissions, POLITICO reports.
That is because, despite considerable financial pressure and public outrage over the surge in refugees, there remains a fundamental mismatch between what Scholz’s left-wing coalition is willing to do and what many believe the crisis demands. More radical proposals, such as setting an annual asylum quota or moving the processing and assessment of refugees to non-EU countries, are routinely rejected due to legal challenges, put on hold or delayed by bureaucracy.
Germany has long been a destination for many refugees, as its generous approach to asylum has led to the creation of large migrant communities where newcomers often have connections that facilitate the move from their home country. More than 60 per cent of asylum applications lodged in the EU in the first half of 2023 were lodged in Germany.
Scholz said on Tuesday that the only viable solution to the problem was European “solidarity” in sharing the burden of hosting refugees. His predecessor Angela Merkel first uttered the phrase almost a decade ago. However, few EU countries seem to be interested. As a result, Germany and the EU are caught in an awkward process in which Berlin pretends to make tough demands on European partners and Brussels pretends to listen attentively.
In the last act of this performance comes the so-called “New Pact on Migration and Asylum”, which has been under discussion since 2020. According to this 1000-page plan, which was approved by EU countries in October but must pass through a sceptical parliament to enter into force, asylum procedures at the EU’s external borders will be streamlined.
Among several provisions that have sparked intense opposition and debate in Germany and elsewhere, border states such as Italy will be given greater ability to swiftly deny asylum to those whose prospects are considered slim.
Despite the controversy surrounding the EU plan, it is far from certain that it will be able to significantly curb migration. For it to succeed, the EU will have to persuade countries from which migrants are fleeing en masse to take them back if they are not granted asylum. Moreover, deals will have to be struck with authoritarian states in northern Africa to deter asylum seekers from trying to cross the Mediterranean, a strategy many consider unsafe.
While Germany will ostensibly be the main beneficiary of the EU deal, its approach to the negotiations reflects the government’s deep reservations about taking a tougher stance on asylum, according to POLITICO.
One of the main reasons for the pact negotiations dragging on is Germany’s reluctance to accept tougher provisions, such as those that allow asylum seekers to be detained at the EU’s external borders until their cases are resolved. For many members of Scholz’s left-wing coalition, which includes the Greens in addition to the Social Democrats (SPD), the tougher approach envisaged by the pact was too big an obstacle. However, this was only the case until Germany began to feel the effects of the latest influx of refugees.
The recent influx of refugees has put many German regions and municipalities in a critical situation. Local authorities complain that they have neither housing nor staff to cope with the more than 250,000 asylum seekers who have arrived in the country this year.
The German public is also increasingly worried. According to recent polls, more than 70 per cent of the population express dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of migration. This has contributed to record support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Last month, Scholz’s SPD posted its worst election results in the states of Hesse and Bavaria in more than a century. This historic defeat was fuelled by dissatisfaction with the government’s migration policy.
The AfD’s nomination convinced many members of the SPD and the Greens to harden their stance on asylum. However, Scholz’s dilemma remains: many of these parties will not dare to embrace more radical reforms. The centre-right Christian Democrats are trying to fill the vacated seat by proposing more sweeping changes in an attempt to win back AfD voters.
For example, during talks this week, Christian Democrat leaders floated the idea of setting up asylum centres in third countries, similar to what Britain did in Rwanda. It’s an old idea, first floated by the SPD’s interior minister some 20 years ago. But it was never realised because many on the political left considered it a violation of refugee rights, POLITICO reports.
Scholz eventually agreed to commission a study to “explore” the legal implications of the idea, which is the German political equivalent of the phrase “Don’t call me, I’ll call you.”
Scholz is left to try to maintain a semblance of activity, as he is incapable of bold action. Last month, he told German magazine Der Spiegel that it was time to start deporting asylum seekers “on a large scale.” However, for those familiar with the legal and practical obstacles along the way, these were just more words.
There remain around 300,000 people in Germany whose asylum applications have been rejected. The problems Germany faces in deporting them were vividly illustrated last week when Scholz travelled to Nigeria in an attempt to persuade that country’s leadership to take back 14,000 of his compatriots.
The main problem preventing most of them from being deported is the lack of passports. Most Nigerian migrants realise that the lack of documents makes deportation difficult.
At a press conference after his meeting with President Boloy Tinubu, Scholz spoke in German about what the two leaders discussed. When he got to the last and most important point for Scholz – migration – the Nigerian removed the headphones he was wearing to translate. Scholz said that while he is convinced that migration is a central issue for all countries, “it is also true that in some countries the importance of this issue is higher than in others.”
