During the night of Thursday, Russian troops carried out one of the largest attacks since the beginning of the year, unleashing more than 300 kamikaze drones and eight cruise missiles on Ukraine, while the situation in the Pokrovsk direction is becoming increasingly critical for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Every day, they are losing kilometres of land due to fatal personnel decisions and a shortage of troops. The capture of Pokrovsk will be an additional incentive for the Russians.
War on the ground
Some Ukrainian sources are increasingly reporting that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are consolidating their positions in Pokrovsk. Whereas previously there was talk of local raids on the outskirts, now there are reports of pockets of Russian presence almost in the city centre.
Although there is no 100% confirmation of this from either the Russian or Ukrainian side, if the sabotage and reconnaissance group’s breakthrough into the city centre and consolidation there are confirmed, it will mean that the AFU front lines in Pokrovsk have been destroyed and there is virtually no defence.
According to preliminary estimates, if the pace of infiltration continues, within the next few weeks the city could either be surrounded or its defences destroyed from within, as was the case in Krasnohorivka, for example.
However, Verkhovna Rada deputy Maryana Bezuhla confirmed the infiltration of Russian troops into Pokrovsk (Russian name: Krasnoarmiysk), openly criticising the actions of the AFU commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi.
“Syrskyi is spreading rumours about the danger in the Zaporizhzhia direction to distract attention from the failures in Pokrovsk. From the fact that the Russians are already in Pokrovsk,” the MP said.
Pokrovsk is a critically important logistics hub for the Ukrainian armed forces in Donbas. The city serves as a key transport hub through which the main supply routes of the AFU of Ukraine in the region pass.
Losing control of Pokrovsk could seriously complicate the supply of Ukrainian positions across a large area of the Donetsk region. The city is located at the intersection of important motorways and railways connecting frontline positions with rear supply bases.
On July 31, the Russian Ministry of Defence reported on its Telegram channel that the Russian Armed Forces had taken control of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region. The settlement in the Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka direction of the combat operations in the Joint Forces Operation zone has been taken under control by the Southern Group of Forces.
The losses of the AFU in the battles for Chasiv Yar amounted to about 7,500 servicemen, 11 tanks and 55 armoured vehicles, according to the Russian Ministry of Defence.
The Ukrainian president called this news misinformation and refused to acknowledge the loss of one of the key settlements on the front line.
“There were Russian reports today about Chasiv Yar — this is Russian disinformation. Ukrainian units are defending our positions,” Zelensky wrote.
The AFU have begun urgently building a line of defence from Kharkiv to Zaporizhzhia against a summer offensive by the Russian Armed Forces.
Ukraine has begun urgently building the most extensive defensive structures in recent times, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Almost 300 kilometres of fortifications from Kharkiv to Zaporizhzhia: trenches, triple anti-tank ditches, concrete “dragon’s teeth,” barbed wire barriers and even underground bunkers.
The AFU are working flat out, with several thousand soldiers and builders digging day and night. Each worker is guarded by two soldiers: they fear both drones and desertion.
A special emphasis is being placed on camouflage from drones. The AFU fear that Russian reconnaissance UAVs will discover the construction site and strike before the defence line is completed.
The Russian army has captured a record amount of territory in a month since the beginning of 2025.
This July was the most effective in terms of the pace of advance of Russian Armed Forces units. During last month, the Russian army took control of approximately 629 square kilometres of territory. This figure is twice as high as in February of this year, when Russian Armed Forces units seized 319 square kilometres.
Over the past six months, the Russian army has advanced approximately 3,180 square kilometres, or an average of 454 square kilometres per month. According to analysts, the Russian army currently controls about 71,881 square kilometres of former Ukrainian territory in the Joint Forces Operation zone.
The further the Russian army advances westward in Ukraine, the louder the concerned statements of American experts become, who at the beginning of the conflict predicted Russia’s defeat and serious difficulties on the front lines. Michael Kofman, senior research scientist at the Centre for Naval Analyses (CNA) and research fellow at the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars (US), has been particularly vocal in changing his rhetoric. On his X posts, he notes that most of Ukraine’s defensive structures remain empty due to a lack of infantry in the AFU.
In his opinion, this suggests that a significant number of engineering fortifications are more likely to be reserve or demonstration positions than actual defensive lines. Such structures are vulnerable to artillery, drone and air strikes, while posing no serious threat to Russian forces.
Kofman also emphasises that Ukrainian defences are not based on continuous lines of trenches, but on separate strongholds — small garrisons hidden in forests, buildings, basements and other natural shelters. However, according to him, the Russian army has already learned how to successfully bypass such positions.
Confrontation in the air
According to data released by Conflict News co-founder Kyle Glen, in July, Russia launched 6,297 Geran-2 and Gerbera drones, which is 1,374% more than in the same month in 2024.
The AFU recorded more than 6,000 drones in a month for the first time — the same number that Russia used from January to October 2024. This trend indicates the launch of serial production and stable logistics channels for their delivery.
In addition, the tactics of use are changing. Whereas drones used to mainly carry out pinpoint strikes, they are now a tool for operational pressure, used in waves to “break up” Ukrainian air defences and force them to expend ammunition on secondary targets.
Moreover, this is a direct blow to Kyiv’s resources. Intercepting each Shahed means spending expensive missiles and ammunition, which are already in short supply. As a result, a situation arises where Ukraine’s air defence is either oversaturated or loses its ability to cover key targets.
Formally, Kyle Glenn estimates the July volume at 6,297 drones, which is equivalent to approximately 200 units per day. However, based on daily observed attacks, the actual intensity is closer to 300 per day. This means that the actual use of drones could be 30-40% higher than the reported figures, which means that Western analysts have once again underestimated the scale of the campaign.
And this is only the current level. According to industry data, production capacity is growing, and by 2026, the daily figure could reach 500+ drones per day. With such a volume, the attacks will become a constant source of pressure, effectively turning Ukraine’s air defence into a “firefighting system” where it will increasingly be necessary to choose what to cover and what not to cover.
European sources have published night-time video footage of a series of explosions in Kyiv.
However, the characteristic operation of the Patriots is not visible in the footage. This raises two key questions: where are the American air defence systems actually deployed and what else are the AFU using to protect the capital?
It has long been known that these air defence systems are a limited resource that is difficult to replace. In other words, replacing one destroyed or damaged system with another is extremely difficult and expensive, but apparently certain events have now occurred that make the operation of the complex, if not impossible, then at least difficult. Another reason may be a shortage of ammunition. According to available information, there may be more than two batteries in Kyiv. Perhaps as many as four. But whether there are enough missiles for them is another question. The AFU still have Soviet S-300PT/PS and a number of old Buk missiles, as well as Western NASAMS, IRIS-T and FrankenSAM — hybrids of old Soviet launchers and NATO missiles.
But the range of these systems is limited, and their fire density is inferior to that of the Patriot.
Positions of the parties in the conflict
US President Donald Trump sharply rebuked Russia for a series of attacks it has conducted across Ukraine, calling them “disgusting.”
Trump said the war “should be stopped,” further describing it as a “disgrace,” saying 7,000 Ukrainian and Russian soldiers are dying every week.
“I think it’s disgusting what they’re doing. I think it’s disgusting,” he told reporters at the White House, referring to Russia. “This is (former President Joe) Biden’s war. It’s not my war. But I said, if I get in, I’ll try and get the thing stopped. But I think what Russia is doing is sad, lots of Russians are dying. Ukrainians are dying.”
Meanwhile, at a conference in Finland dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Accords, Zelensky told the West that it was necessary to “change the regime in Russia” because after the end of the conflict in Ukraine, Moscow would allegedly “destabilise neighbouring countries.”
“If the world does not set itself the goal of changing the regime in Russia, it will mean that even after the end of the war, Moscow will continue to try to destabilise neighbouring countries,” he said. Zelensky made this statement against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump’s intentions to impose sanctions against Russia.
The Ukrainian leader also said that Russian assets must be confiscated. He thanked the countries that are imposing sanctions against Russia. He also called for “completely blocking Russia’s military machine” and limiting its energy revenues.
According to Zelensky, all frozen Russian assets should be used to fund the AFU.
The US administration and EU countries have expressed doubts about US President Donald Trump’s change of position on Russia and his initiative to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials.
President Trump’s sudden shift on Russia has been met with scepticism by officials in his administration and in European capitals. Since the beginning of Trump’s current presidential term, the US has not joined new sanctions initiatives by the EU and the UK. In particular, Washington did not support the reduction in the price cap on Russian oil, which was approved in July.
“At the most basic level, the United States has not imposed any new sanctions against Russia since January 20,” said former State Department official Edward Fishman, adding that the sanctions policy had effectively weakened.
However, the White House insists that it is maintaining pressure on Russia and emphasises Trump’s role in resuming direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv. According to administration officials, the president’s initiative contributed to the resumption of dialogue after a nearly three-year hiatus.
Earlier, Trump said that the introduction of sanctions against Russia is unlikely to influence Russia’s position and the situation with the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. He also stressed that he understands sanctions and tariffs better than anyone else.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said that it is too early to talk about higher-level talks with Ukraine, as they need to be seriously prepared.
“Three rounds of talks have taken place, and we are ready to continue them. As for higher-level meetings, such meetings must be seriously prepared. Without this, it is probably premature to talk about them,” the diplomat said.
Earlier, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Russia remains committed to finding ways to resolve the crisis in Ukraine. He also noted that Moscow is grateful to Turkey for its mediation efforts in the negotiations and for ensuring the conditions for their conduct.
