As voters across England, Wales and Scotland prepare to cast their ballots in one of the most significant electoral tests since Labour’s landslide victory, experts warn that the traditional two-party system – a cornerstone of British politics for over a century – may be facing its most serious challenge yet.
The scale of the vote: 136 councils and two national parliaments
Local elections will take place in 136 councils across England, while voters in Wales and Scotland will head to the polls to elect their national parliaments, according to Google News. Perhaps the biggest intrigue surrounding these elections is just how heavy a blow Labour will suffer. But beyond that, the very two-party system that has underpinned British politics for more than a century could also be shaken.
The Conservative Party is fighting simply to hold its ground, while the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and the nationally oriented Reform UK are hoping for what have until now been only local – but potentially unprecedented – victories.
Why local councils matter
City wards and small administrative areas in Great Britain elect their councillors. This tier of government has the closest contact with the public. Councils are responsible for street maintenance, repairing local roads, rubbish collection, elderly care, supporting community initiatives, and helping schools and libraries. They also consider planning applications and housing redevelopments in their areas.
The current political map of local Britain
Elections will be held in 136 councils out of a total of 317. According to the Institute for Government, an independent think tank, Labour currently holds a majority in 66 of the 134 existing local authorities (two new councils have just been created and will go to the polls for the first time). The Conservatives have a majority in 16, the Liberal Democrats in 13, and independent councillors in one. A further 38 councils have no single party with an outright majority and are run by coalitions.
Experts agree that these elections will reflect the current approval ratings of Labour and its leader, Prime Minister Keir Starmer. However, unlike a general election, local elections tend to focus on local rather than national issues – roads, bridges, and schools. It is common for the governing party to lose seats in local elections. That does not necessarily mean it will lose a general election, but in this case, experts predict Labour will be unable to recover in time for the next general election, due in 2029.
Labour’s dramatic fall from grace
Labour came to power in July 2024, securing a commanding majority in the House of Commons with 411 seats out of 650. According to POLITICO’s polling on April 30, Labour’s current support stands at just 17%, placing them in fourth place. They trail Reform UK on 25%, the Greens and the Conservatives on 18% each. By comparison, on July 4, 2024, the day of the last general election, Labour had 34% support, while Reform UK was in third place with 17% (the party ultimately won eight seats).
Thus, in less than two years, Labour’s approval rating has halved. According to YouGov, 70% of Britons believe Starmer is performing poorly in his role, with only 22% rating his work positively.
Starmer’s policy U-turns and an uncertain future
Starmer has pursued an inconsistent policy agenda. He attempted to reform the social welfare system, but faced opposition from Labour MPs and was forced to abandon the plan. The same applies to migration policy – irregular immigration on small boats across the English Channel has continued unabated. Commentators have identified as many as 14 policy reversals by Starmer. Labour will not call an early general election, as they recognise they would lose. Instead, they are likely to replace Starmer – much as the Conservatives did with their own leaders. The problem is that there is no obvious successor.
Reform UK on the rise
Projections point to substantial gains for Reform UK, a trend that has been building for several years. In last year’s local elections – held every May in England – Farage’s party surged into the lead.
Over the past few years, little has changed in Britain. Starmer has failed to resolve the migration issue, and the British economy remains in a fairly poor state. At the last general election, it was clear that voters had grown tired of the Conservatives, but Labour ultimately failed to convince the public that anything new had arrived.
Among the British electorate, a perception has taken hold that Labour and the Conservatives are two sides of the same coin, and that only a radical shake-up of the party system can bring about real change.
Could Farage really become prime minister?
Reform UK could one day become the governing party of the kingdom, and Farage could become prime minister. However, it is too early to make firm predictions. The next general election is not due until 2029, and much could change in that time.
Moreover, a party’s popularity does not guarantee it will win enough seats in the House of Commons. The reason is the first-past-the-post electoral system, under which the candidate with a simple majority in each constituency wins the seat. As a result, nationwide support does not necessarily translate into a proportional number of parliamentary seats.
