The EU will take Armenia’s intention to European integration seriously only when its prime minister proves that his country supports regional co-operation and commitment to the territorial integrity of states, Emerging Europe reports.
On 15 March, the ninth trilateral meeting of Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan was held in Baku. At the meeting, representatives of the three states discussed current areas of co-operation and outlined steps to strengthen relations within the trilateral format. The Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasised the importance of developing economic relations, as well as international energy and transport projects in which the three countries are involved.
This triad emerged in part as a response to the Russian-Armenian alliance in the 1990s-2000s. Armenia was in conflict with Azerbaijan and seized a fifth of its territory. Iran and Russia supported Armenia. Georgia had tense relations with Russia, which spilled over into 2008 when Russia expanded its military presence in the two breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Azerbaijan, which has close ties with Turkey, favoured strengthening ties within the “triad” as a balance against the Armenian-Russian-Iranian axis.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus has changed significantly. In 2020, Azerbaijan regained most of the territory seized by Armenia. Since 2022, Russia has been involved in the military conflict in Ukraine and cannot support Armenia’s territorial claims to the Karabakh region. These two developments have given the South Caucasus a green light for geopolitical alignment, according to Emerging Europe.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is attempting to sever Armenia’s ties with Russia while taking steps to integrate into Europe. This will not be easy as his predecessors, who led Armenia for two decades, built close ties with Russia. Borders are always a sensitive issue for a country’s sovereignty, which is why Armenia is the only country in the world where a foreign state (in this case Russia) manages and secures its borders.
Armenia is a member of two Russian-led organisations – the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) and the Eurasian Economic Union. While the CSTO was created by Putin’s predecessor in the early 1990s, the Eurasian Economic Union, which was conceived as an alternative to the European Union (EU), was formed under Putin’s rule.
More importantly, Pashinyan needs to take concrete steps to show that his rhetoric in favour of European integration is not just words. Rather than reinventing the wheel, Pashinyan should simply follow the example of the post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the 1990s.
Central and Eastern Europe took two key steps that Pashinyan should follow.
- The first was that the leaders of Central and Eastern Europe realised that a “return to Europe” and then joining NATO and the EU was only possible if they gave up territorial claims against each other and accepted the borders inherited from when they were part (directly or indirectly) of the Soviet empire.
The South Caucasus is not unique in making territorial claims, as there are many potential territorial conflicts in Central and Eastern Europe. For example, Hungary could claim parts of Slovakia and Romania, which have large Hungarian populations. Poland could claim the Ukrainian region of Galicia, and Germany could claim Polish Silesia and Russian East Prussia.
Central and Eastern European countries have put these territorial disputes in the past and instead favoured European integration. Armenia should not procrastinate, as it has for three years, and sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan if Pashinyan is really serious about his country’s European integration. This should be based on both countries respecting each other’s territorial integrity and recognising the borders of the former Soviet republics as international borders. A peace treaty with Azerbaijan would lead to the normalisation of Armenia’s relations with Turkey, relations with which have been frozen for three decades.
- The second step the minister should take is to support regional integration, as this sends a message that Armenia is in favour of reconciliation, normalisation of relations with its neighbours and increased co-operation in the political, economic, trade, energy and security spheres.
In 2022, Azerbaijan proposed a trilateral South Caucasus platform with Armenia and Georgia. Then Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili welcomed the initiative. Pashinyan did not express enthusiasm for regional co-operation, not realising that European integration is done in conjunction with regional integration.
Recall that the EU itself was originally formed as the European Coal and Steel Community. In the 1990s, the inhabitants of Central-Eastern Europe created the Weimar Triangle and the Visegrad Group to establish regional co-operation.
The Weimar Triangle was created back in 1991, the year of the collapse of the USSR, by France, Germany and Poland. The Weimar Triangle met on 24 February, the second anniversary of the start of the military conflict in Ukraine, to declare their common support for European integration and a united stance against the Russian threat to Europe. On 15 March, the Weimar Triangle met again to iron out differences over their common relationship with the US and to coordinate a common policy on military and financial support for Ukraine in its military conflict, Emerging Europe reports.
The Visegrad Group was also founded in 1991 by Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary to coordinate their approaches to leaving the communist past and the Soviet empire and integrating into NATO and the EU. The Visegrad Group supported Ukraine, although it never became a member. With NATO and EU membership in the early 2000s, the Visegrad Group became less active, and with the rise of populist nationalists in Hungary and Slovakia, its activity declined.
Pashinyan should emulate the regional integration initiatives undertaken by Central and Eastern Europeans since 1991 by joining existing structures. It is self-justifying for Armenia to ignore regional initiatives such as the recent trilateral meeting between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
The EU will take Armenia’s claims of European integration seriously only when Pashinyan demonstrates that his country is committed to the territorial integrity of states and supports regional co-operation in political, economic, trade, energy and security aspects.
By reducing Armenia’s integration with Russia, Pashinyan should show his commitment to moving away from Eurasia by increasing his country’s presence and engagement in regional frameworks, such as the trilateral meeting just held. The EU should certainly support Armenia’s shift from Eurasia to Europe, but Armenia should take the first and most important steps itself.
