In January, the defence ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania announced that they would build a series of “anti-mobility defensive installations,” known as the Baltic Defence Line, along the border with Russia and Belarus – The Economist.
The decision by the Baltic governments was prompted by Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive, which was confronted primarily by the so-called Surovikin line: a sprawling array of Russian minefields, trenches, anti-tank obstacles and old-fashioned barbed wire, among other impediments.
According to an analysis by the US think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Russian fortifications in southern and eastern Ukraine have become the most extensive defences in Europe since World War II.
Although Vladimir Putin stated in an interview with Tucker Carlson that he has no plans to start a conflict with the Baltics, Poland or anywhere else.
Lieutenant-Colonel Kaido Tiitus, a commander in the Estonian Defence League, a volunteer organisation stated the following:
“Our main lesson is that we need to find a way to stop the advance of Russian armoured units.”
Estonian officials estimate that about 600 concrete bunkers of 35 square metres each, capable of holding about ten soldiers and withstanding a large shell, would be needed along their section of the border (expected to begin next year at a cost of about €60 million).
Latvia and Lithuania, in turn, would need 1,116 bunkers and 2,758, assuming the fortifications are built at the same rate as in Estonia, calculates Lukas Milevski, an expert at Leiden University in the Netherlands. Poland is building fortifications and shelters along its borders with Russia and Belarus.
The build-up of fortifications can be explained by the fact that European officials are concerned that Russia is rearming more rapidly compared to Europe.
“It cannot be ruled out that within a three to five year period, Russia will test Article 5 and NATO’s solidarity,” warned Troels Lund Poulsen, Denmark’s defence minister, on February 9th. “That was not nato’s assessment in 2023. This is new information that is coming to the fore now.”
