The International Crisis Group NGO reported that Bosnia and Herzegovina was on the verge of falling apart, according to bne IntelliNews.
The NGO published a report on May 28, calling on the EU to intervene to help stop the process. Bosnia and Herzegovina faced its most fragile moment in years because of separation efforts of Republika Srpska, the organisation stated.
“Republika Srpska (RS), the smaller of its two ethnically divided parts, is taking cautious but steady steps to break away, due to grievances with the country’s international supervision.”
Republika Srpska‘s ruling SNSD party, led by President Milorad Dodik, has taken steps toward de facto secession for the first time. The administration passed laws that preemptively reject all future decisions by the Constitutional Court and the highest representative of the international community.
At the same time, Dodik is actively seeking support from Russia, Hungary and Serbia for his secession programme. He promises that Republika Srpska will secede as soon as the geopolitical situation allows it. The NGO also reported:
He surmises that such an opportunity might arise if Donald Trump is elected a second time as US president in November. The EU and member states have leverage in Bosnia, including in RS, which they should use vigorously, lest the situation become worse.
It added that EU member States should endeavour to reach an agreement with Republika Srpska to prevent the entity from holding its own elections. Meanwhile, High Representative Christian Schmidt should refrain from imposing punitive measures without consensus support from the Peace Implementation Council’s Steering Board.
“The EU’s priority should be to break the cycle of escalation that Banja Luka and the High Representative are locked in. Brussels and member states engaged in Bosnia, notably France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, should use their influence with the High Representative to discourage him from further use of his extraordinary powers.”
The NGO noted that the EU had significant leverage in Bosnia, including in Republika Srpska, as the start of EU membership negotiations would allow Bosnia to benefit from the EU’s €6 billion Western Balkans growth pact.
EU officials should be clear that full EU accession for both Bosnia and (if it plays a spoiler role) Serbia depends on there being an intact, stable and fully functional state in Bosnia.
It added that the start of EU membership negotiations could be used to reassess the Dayton Peace Agreement. The treaty was at the heart of the recurring crises between Republika Srpska and the High Representative, the International Crisis Group emphasised.
