Over the years, Britain’s exit from the European Union has created a new lexicon, with “trivergence” potentially becoming a new contagious term, Encompass informs.
The so-called “trivergence” refers to a scenario in which Northern Ireland deviates from EU and UK rules, establishing three separate sets of rules and staying out of both. The deviation is based on the application of the “Stormont Brake,” included in the Windsor Framework, which the UK and EU agreed earlier this year. It allows the Irish border to be kept open.
When the new EU rules come into force in Northern Ireland, it will create a divergence with the rest of the UK, which no longer follows EU regulations. This effect is of great concern to the Unionist community in Northern Ireland due to the sense of political alienation it generates.
However, the Stormont Brake would allow Northern Ireland Assembly members to block the application of updated EU rules if it has a “significant impact specific to everyday life in a way that is liable to persist.”
For instance, the revised EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive, which could impose significant new obligations on companies regarding how packaging is produced, used and disposed of. If UK companies do not adapt to the new requirements, their packaged goods will no longer be exported for sale in Northern Ireland.
As this could impact trade significantly, the Brake could block its application, leaving Northern Ireland under the old version of the EU packaging directive replicated by the UK during Brexit.
However, if one of the UK governments subsequently changes its own packaging rules, then the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland and the European Union will have separate packaging rules.
The Windsor Framework would allow Northern Ireland to gain access to both the EU single market and the UK internal market, but triggering the Brake could result in cutting off from both markets.
The trivergence risk is currently redundant as Northern Ireland does not have the current Assembly to trigger the Brake.
The Northern Ireland government could solve the problem by copying the Westminster legislation, but there are doubts on whether it will be able to keep track of all applicable changes and implement the necessary reforms. Previously, the Scottish and Welsh governments, obliged to comply with EU rules where possible, have failed to achieve much in practice.
If the Windsor Framework is adopted as the new status quo in Northern Ireland, the latter will need to rely on Westminster’s constructive engagement on the upcoming changes.
Due to the Framework, 2023 is widely seen as a year of normalisation of UK-EU relations. However, its implications for Northern Ireland remain uncertain, as its provisions have yet to be fully tested, also due to the absence of the Assembly. It will have to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement and Protocol by the end of next year. So 2024 will show whether the Framework can secure a new normal for Northern Ireland.
