The ruling Liberal Party of Canada will elect a new leader on Sunday. This person will also become the country’s next prime minister as tensions rise in a trade dispute with the United States.
Mark Carney, a former central banker, is the frontrunner to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trudeau announced his resignation in January after more than nine years in office. His approval ratings had fallen, prompting the party to hold a swift leadership contest.
The incoming prime minister will face immediate challenges. These include negotiations with US President Donald Trump, who has threatened further tariffs on Canada. The new leader must also prepare for a possible general election against the opposition Conservative Party.
Drew Fagan, a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, acknowledged the difficult timing. “Is it ideal for us to be in this position during a bilateral crisis? Perhaps not,” he said. “But the process is unfolding as it should.”
Mark Carney: The Leading Candidate
Carney has received the most endorsements from Liberal members and raised the most funds among the four candidates. He has support from around two-thirds of Trudeau’s cabinet. A February poll by Mainstreet showed that 43 per cent of Liberal supporters backed him, compared to 31 per cent for his closest rival, former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.
Freeland played a key role in negotiating with Trump during his first term. However, she has struggled to differentiate herself from Trudeau after years as one of his closest allies. She left government in December after Trudeau attempted to replace her. Since then, she has criticised his administration’s spending policies.
If successful, Carney, 59, would be the first person without a traditional political background to become prime minister. He previously served as Governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He argues this experience makes him well-equipped to handle economic negotiations with the US.
Carney started his career as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs before moving into public service. Since leaving the Bank of England in 2020, he has worked as a United Nations envoy focused on private sector investment in climate-friendly technology. He has also held various private sector roles. However, he has never served in parliament or held elected office.
The leadership vote and future leader challenges
About 400,000 Liberal Party members were eligible to vote in the leadership contest. The first round of results is expected at around 6:30pm (2230 GMT).
During his campaign, Carney supported retaliatory tariffs on the US and a more coordinated investment strategy. He has frequently criticised Canada’s economic performance under Trudeau.
The prospect of a new Liberal leader, combined with Trump’s trade policies and controversial remarks about Canada, has boosted Liberal Party support. Earlier this year, the party trailed the Conservatives by 20 points, but recent polls show a much closer race.
A Renewed Political Landscape
“There has been an unexpected ‘rally around the flag’ effect,” said Richard Johnston, a politics professor at the University of British Columbia. “At this moment, the Liberals appear to have avoided a complete collapse.”
Regardless of the leadership outcome, the next prime minister must make key decisions immediately. The minority Liberal government could face a confidence vote when Parliament reconvenes at the end of March. This could trigger an early election.
If the new leader calls an election, they would avoid the challenge of forming a new cabinet. Under current regulations, an election must take place no later than 20 October.
Polls suggest neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives would secure a parliamentary majority. Carney could technically serve as prime minister without a seat in the House of Commons. However, tradition dictates that he should enter Parliament as soon as possible.
A historical precedent exists. In 1984, John Turner became prime minister after winning the Liberal leadership race despite not holding a parliamentary seat at the time.
