Despite ongoing efforts in Spain to smooth over the chaos that unfolded following the mass border crossing by migrants, leaving the city in turmoil, the fallout could have long-term consequences for both Europe and Spain.
The ease with which tens of thousands of migrants breached the border between Morocco and Spain has highlighted a number of uncertainties regarding Spain’s own security system and has also put other European countries at risk, which may face consequences including migration and terrorism.
The latest concerns stem mainly from reports that Spanish security services have identified several individuals who were previously under investigation on charges of crimes linked to jihadism. Even though Europe had previously reacted sternly to the situation in Spain, the situation has since changed; however, this does not alter the overall structure of the border system. Brussels’ situational political compromises and temporary steps of solidarity merely mask the fundamental vulnerability of the external borders.
It is worth noting that Spain is a transit hub, so migrants who have crossed the border tend to head north, whilst the detection of a terrorist threat triggers a chain reaction.
Although neither the Spanish Ministry of the Interior, nor the National Police, nor the Civil Guard have yet confirmed the information, this does not rule out possible consequences. In 2021, when Spain faced a similar situation, the government dismissed media reports that jihadist militants had infiltrated the arrivals area, calling them a “malicious hoax.”
At present, sources state that law enforcement agencies have analysed CCTV footage and identified at least a dozen individuals who had been arrested, convicted and subsequently deported to Morocco for offences related to jihadist terrorism. The threat therefore remains and, due to the Schengen Area, could spread first to neighbouring countries.
In addition, terrorism has taken on a global scale and merged with modern technology; on the one hand, it has become a decentralised system, yet on the other, it is no longer driven by rigid structures but through social media, messaging apps and viral content – similar to how the border was stormed, as migrants had seen numerous fabricated videos and posts claiming that the Spanish border was open.
Jordan Bardella, leader of the National Rally, said: “Leaving our borders open means letting enemies of our civilization into our home: the breach opened in Ceuta by the left’s naivety is a breach in the security of all Europeans. If we do nothing, the perpetrators of future attacks that will strike innocents in Europe will have entered our home through Ceuta.”
Britain, which is facing an unprecedented migrant crisis with hundreds of migrants arriving on a daily basis – a situation fuelled by the ineffectiveness of the French gendarmerie – is already on the brink of experiencing a crisis of its own in Ceuta. A report by the Facts4EU think tank, prepared in collaboration with Stand for Our Sovereignty and The Campaign for an Independent Britain, warns that although the North African enclave lies a distance of a thousand kilometres from the British coast, the UK may face migrants who may first reach France and then set off for the UK from the coast near Dunkirk.
The reason lies in geography, as Ceuta, despite being in North Africa, is part of Spain and, consequently, part of the European Union and the Schengen Area.
In addition, Ceuta is “one of the weak front doors into the EU for those coming from Africa and the Middle East,” according to former Tory minister Lord Redwood. He added that “the pressures of weak borders in the south of the EU are felt in the Channel when the migrants set their sights on coming to the UK.”
A report by Facts4EU points out that the border in reality poses no threat to those seeking to enter Spanish territory. In the meantime, the migrants themselves, in reports after their return to Morocco, say that Spain is more attractive to them because “there are no mafias,” unlike in their home countries. The situation in Morocco leaves much to be desired, forcing migrants to set out in search of a new life in the nearest favourable destination.
Even upon reaching Ceuta or the neighbouring Spanish exclave of Melilla, the migrants face high levels of unemployment, which leads them to move on further into Spain or to other European Union countries. The report warns that “the simple fact is that no young migrant will want to stay in Ceuta.”
This raises another issue – that of the European Union’s stance – as, after the “refugee crisis” of 2015-2016, Brussels set out a series of emergency measures.
This means that in cases where large groups of applicants arrive from a specific country or region of origin and are likely to be in need of protection, the Commission has the power to effectively fast-track their entry into the bloc. However, in light of the discovery of jihadists in Ceuta, the rapid regularisation of large groups without thorough identity checks deprives the security services of the ability to detect hidden “sleeper cells” of extremists effectively.
Spain’s isolated territories in Africa in danger
For Spain in particular, the ongoing crisis could undermine Ceuta and Melilla, two of the few remaining vestiges of the vast Spanish Empire, which have been under Madrid’s rule since 1668 and 1497 respectively and are fully-fledged parts of the European Union. The tensions have grown after fears that traditional NATO allies are no longer entirely trustworthy due to their political disputes with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.
In addition, Morocco and the US are currently experiencing one of the best and most productive phases in their centuries-long history of relations.
Consequently, Morocco is exploiting all these factors – the tensions in Spain’s relations with the US and the EU – to bolster its claims to Spanish territories, which Rabat considers to be occupied. Nevertheless, these opinions come not only from Morocco’s state media, but from the US and Israel, both of which recall that Spain refused to provide support for the war in Iran in February this year, blocking the use of its infrastructure for the military campaign.
US Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart, a member of the influential Appropriations Committee, told Spanish media that “Ceuta and Melilla are in Moroccan territory,” calling into question whether the autonomous cities “are part of Spain or should be part of Morocco.” He pointed out that at the start of the war in Iran, Morocco had expressed its support.
At the height of the crisis in Ceuta, Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, spoke out against Madrid’s criticism of the war in Gaza and questioned Spain’s presence in Ceuta and Melilla. “Spain, which never misses an opportunity to lecture Israel, has declared a state of emergency in Ceuta following the crisis over its immigration policy,” he wrote on X, adding that “Perhaps before it continues lecturing us, it is time it explained to the world why it still maintains colonial enclaves in Africa.”
Meanwhile, unrest is mounting in Spain itself over this issue. The press is talking about the start of the “Green March 2.0,” considering the rapid breach of the border in Ceuta not as a spontaneous humanitarian crisis, but as a planned special operation by Morocco.
The press sees a frighteningly accurate historical parallel between the actions of the Moroccan authorities and the events of autumn 1975.
Back then, taking advantage of the political paralysis in Madrid caused by the dying days of Francisco Franco, King Hassan II organised the original “Green March.” 350,000 unarmed Moroccans, carrying national flags and Qur’ans, crossed the border into the Spanish Sahara colony on foot. The Spanish military, constrained by orders and moral standards, decided not to open fire on the huge crowd of peaceful civilians. Ultimately, Madrid surrendered and handed the region over to Morocco without a single shot being fired.
Defence Minister Margarita Robles stated during a press conference on Monday that “Ceuta and Melilla are off limits. Everyone must be very clear that Spain’s territorial integrity and sovereignty are not up for debate.”
Officials’ statements that the territories are “off limits” indicate that the Ceuta crisis has reached unprecedented proportions and will likely have long-term consequences.
