As the world’s most critical oil artery remains paralysed, a frantic diplomatic push involving the US, Iran and Oman has yielded the blueprint for a fragile temporary truce. According to a report by Axios, the three-way deal would halt hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz for an initial 60 days, suspend shipping fees and trigger a risky joint demining mission within a month. Yet the cautious optimism is already being undercut by Tehran, which used state media to declare it had tripled its drone production and stands ready to escalate the war on its own terms should the ceasefire collapse.
The architecture of the agreement
The proposed deal, which sources suggest the US aims to announce on Wednesday, lays out a roadmap for clearing the vital shipping lane. Under the terms, Iran and Oman would enter a temporary 60-day arrangement, which could be extended. Crucially, no fees or levies would be charged for passage through the waterway during this period. The most immediate clause, however, binds both sides to begin clearing mines from the strait’s median separation zone within the first 30 days, a delicate operation essential to restoring safe navigation.
The breakthrough follows a series of high-stakes phone calls involving US President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi. The dialogue was broadened by mediation from a coalition of regional heavyweights, with officials from Qatar, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia working the back channels. Tehran is reported to have finalised its approval of the document just before news of the deal broke.
Building arsenal amid the halt
While diplomats hammered out the terms, Iran’s military command signalled it has been using the existing ceasefire to rebuild and redefine its war-fighting potential. A spokesperson for the Iranian army, Mohammad Akraminia, told state television that the military apparatus had exploited the lull in full, stating: “We used every moment of the ceasefire and the capacities of the memorandum of understanding to the maximum.”
Akraminia confirmed that the pause had allowed engineers to repair damaged systems and manufacture new hardware, while next-generation drones were field-tested during the conflict with the US, with their technical specifications to be disclosed later.
Ramped-up production and a warning
The militarisation of the truce period is starkly evident in Tehran’s industrial output. Acting Defence Minister Majid ibn al-Reza recently confirmed that missile and drone production “has not stopped for a single day,” noting that manufacturing volumes have now tripled compared to pre-war levels.
General Hossein Mohebbi of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) offered a blunt assessment of this newfound strength, warning: “If the adversary returns to the military arena, the type of operation, the geography of the battle, and even the type of weapons used will be different.” The General asserted that the IRGC is fully prepared for all possible scenarios, underscoring the precarious foundation upon which this latest diplomatic push rests.
