As the island prepares to honour the 100th birthday of Fidel Castro, a sweeping economic liberalisation and an unprecedented US pressure campaign are testing the very definition of the revolution he left behind.
A centenary overshadowed by crisis
On Thursday, Cuba marks the centenary of Fidel Castro, the revolutionary leader who steered the nation for nearly half a century. Yet, the grand celebrations come at a time of profound paradox, as the government pushes through its most significant economic reforms in decades while simultaneously navigating an aggressive campaign from Washington that many believe is designed to precipitate regime change.
The primary festivities will take place in Birán, Castro’s birthplace in the Holguín province. A symbolic procession, the “Fidel 100 Years Caravan,” will travel to the site from the Moncada Barracks in Santiago de Cuba, linking the two poles of the revolutionary myth — the place of Castro’s first failed uprising and his humble rural origins.
The making of a Commandante
Fidel Castro’s path to power began with the ill-fated 1953 attack on the Moncada Barracks, for which he was imprisoned and later exiled to Mexico. He returned in 1956 to lead a guerrilla war against the US-backed regime of Fulgencio Batista, finally triumphing on January 1, 1959.
Castro’s subsequent turn towards the Soviet Union and his declaration of a socialist state turned the island into a central theatre of the Cold War, surviving the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion and decades of US sanctions. He formally remained in power, first as Prime Minister and then as head of state, until 2008, handing the reins to his brother, Raúl. He died in 2016.
Economic stimulus, not capitalism, officials insist
The centenary year — officially proclaimed “2026: Year of the Centenary of Fidel Castro”—arrives as the island is mired in its worst crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In an effort to stave off collapse, the government has initiated a profound, if reluctant, process of liberalisation.
This June, the National Assembly approved a package of nearly two hundred measures focused on decentralisation. The reforms promise greater autonomy for state enterprises and municipalities, the right for all companies to hold foreign currency bank accounts, and an end to the state’s monopoly on import-export operations. The goal, according to the government, is to attract foreign investment and revive the decimated tourism and agricultural sectors.
Prime Minister Manuel Marrero has insisted these changes “do not signify a deviation from the socialist project, but respond to the logic of its development.” This message was echoed by President Miguel Díaz-Canel in a speech on August 10, stating the process is one of “economic stimulus, not the establishment of capitalism.”
Capitalist cracks in a communist economy
The reforms have spawned a unique situation in the country’s energy sector. Under the weight of a devastating oil blockade orchestrated by the Trump administration, the United States has paradoxically permitted American companies to sell fuel directly to private Cuban businesses.
According to a Reuters investigation, between February and May, approximately 900,000 barrels of American crude entered the island, helping keep a nascent private sector — restaurants, taxis, and shops — alive. However, this flow has also fuelled a sprawling black market. With state supplies scarce, fuel has been resold from private flats and shops, with petrol prices reportedly reaching $10 a litre — an astronomical sum in a nation where the average monthly salary is roughly $10.
Washington’s shadow over the celebrations
The centenary is being staged under the immense pressure of a new US administration. After implementing the oil blockade, Washington has pursued a multi-pronged strategy. It has placed sanctions on the state oil firm CUPET, indicted 95-year-old Raúl Castro on conspiracy charges, and reportedly seen the CIA create a task force to foment division within the Cuban elite and replace hardliners with pragmatists.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has conducted secret talks with Raúl Castro’s grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, and has publicly promised Cuba will be on an “irreversible path to a totally different future” before the end of Trump’s term. In an interview with Axios, Rubio accused Havana of “buying time, imitating reforms while trying to circumvent American sanctions.”
Meanwhile, US President Trump has confirmed the possibility of targeted action against President Díaz-Canel, and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has stated the US is still considering options for his removal.
Analysts suggest this is a calculated strategy of publicly pressuring for change while simultaneously creating the legal and political pretexts for a potential intervention. Havana has responded with characteristic defiance, with Díaz-Canel labelling the US actions as “a political act without legal basis” aimed at justifying aggression.
A legacy under strain
As the caravan journeys towards Birán, it will pass through a country grappling with total blackouts, food shortages, and an economy projected to shrink by at least 6.5% this year. The tribute to Fidel is therefore more than a historical commemoration; it is a moment of reckoning.
The question hanging over the celebrations is whether the reforms he so reviled are a betrayal of his legacy or the only possible means of saving the socialist state he created. The spirit of the Comandante is being invoked to justify a transformation that would have been unthinkable during his lifetime.
