Significant decreases in the level of the Caspian Sea are substantially disrupting oil shipment operations, elevating logistical expenses and threatening vulnerable marine species, according to statements from Azerbaijani officials and scientific experts.
Deputy Ecology Minister Rauf Hajiyev informed Reuters that although the sea has been gradually getting shallower for decades, this trend has recently accelerated at an alarming rate. Over the past five years, water levels have dropped by 0.93 metres, with a total reduction of 1.5 metres recorded across the last decade and 2.5 metres over thirty years. The current rate of decline is estimated at 20–30 centimetres annually.
“The retreat of the coastline changes natural conditions, disrupts economic activity and creates new challenges for sustainable development,” Hajiyev stated.
He represents Azerbaijan in a joint working group established with Russia in April, which aims to approve an online monitoring and response programme by September despite ongoing diplomatic tensions between the two nations.
The falling water levels are already impairing operations at Baku’s port, reducing capacity and driving up costs. According to Eldar Salakhov, director of Baku International Sea Port, cargo volumes of oil and oil products through the Dubendi terminal declined to 810,000 tonnes in the first half of 2025, down from 880,000 tonnes during the same period the previous year.
Salakhov directly attributed this decrease to low water levels and emphasised that continuous dredging is essential to maintain operational stability. In 2024, more than 250,000 cubic metres of dredging were carried out at Dubendi, with a new vessel named the Engineer Soltan Kazimov now capable of deepening the seabed to 18 metres.
Minister Hajiyev warned that wetlands, lagoons and reed beds are disappearing rapidly, with sturgeon populations losing up to 45% of their summer and autumn habitats and becoming cut off from their spawning grounds.
Professor Amir Aliyev, head of the geomorphology of the Caspian coasts and seabed department at the Geography Institute, noted that the sea’s level has been falling consistently since 1995, with a total reduction of approximately 2 metres over three decades.
He primarily attributed this phenomenon to changes in the water balance, highlighting that inflow from the Volga River, which provides 80% of the Caspian’s water, has decreased by up to 30% due to reduced precipitation in its basin.
Professor Aliyev projected that the Caspian, currently 29 metres below global ocean level, could drop to 31 metres below by 2040–2050. He described how Pirallahi Island may eventually connect to the Absheron Peninsula as waters recede, with similar changes occurring near Chilov.
Around 4 million people in Azerbaijan and 15 million across the Caspian littoral region depend directly on the sea for their livelihoods and economic stability.
