American airstrikes on Iranian military positions failed to derail fragile negotiations on Tuesday, as both sides continued back-channel talks aimed at a landmark truce, even as Tehran condemned the attacks as a “final violation” of the ceasefire.
A paradoxical moment of war and words
Despite US bombings of Iranian targets on Tuesday, the prospect of a peace agreement between Iran and the United States appeared to remain on the negotiating table.
Iran’s foreign ministry denounced the American strikes – which targeted Iranian rocket launchers and fresh attempts to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz – as an “act of bad faith” and a “final breach of the ceasefire regime”. It vowed that the aggression would not go unanswered. However, the attacks did not stop the talks, which continued under joint mediation by Pakistan and Qatar.
Restraint in the face of casualties
Iranian military commanders announced no specific retaliatory measures, suggesting they were unwilling to allow the attack – in which four Iranian soldiers were killed – to derail the delicate final steps towards an agreement. Tehran intends to hail the deal as one of the greatest milestones in the history of Iranian resistance. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures jumped 4% on news of renewed hostilities.
In a sign that US President Donald Trump recognises the conflict has reached a decisive point, he had been due to convene a rare cabinet meeting at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland. But on Tuesday he said on his Truth Social platform that the meeting had been postponed – allegedly because of bad weather.
As Trump continued to face questions over how the proposed peace deal would fulfil the goals he set at the start of the war, he appeared to copy and paste an incoherent social media post from the previous week. It claimed that Democrats and the media would declare victory for Iran even if Tehran “capitulates and admits its navy has vanished and rests on the seabed, its air force no longer with us, and all its troops leave Tehran, abandoning their weapons and raising their hands, everyone will be shouting “I surrender, I surrender,” wildly waving a white flag.”
The man in Doha – Iran’s lead negotiator
Iran’s parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, remained in Doha for a second day on Tuesday, trying to negotiate the release of more than $12bn in frozen Iranian assets and their transfer to an Iranian account. He is also seeking a 60-day easing of sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical exports, a window to allow for talks on new restrictions concerning Iran’s nuclear programme.
The proposed agreement sets aside a separate 30-day period for the US to lift its blockade on Iranian oil ports and for Iran to permit commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – restoring maritime passage to the levels seen before Israel and the US launched the war on February 28.
A fragile “brief agreement” with no real peace
The brief agreement, which would end the war but not establish peace, is fraught with political instability, as all sides know they must try to reach a deal they can present to their respective constituencies as proof that the sacrifices were worthwhile.
Hardliners in Washington, Tehran and Jerusalem are pressing their negotiators not to make further concessions. Mahmoud Nabavian, a member of Iran’s parliamentary committee on national security and foreign policy, insisted that no agreement should deprive Tehran of control over the Strait.
But Qalibaf, re-elected as speaker by a landslide this week, may be able to sideline that opposition for now. Reports suggest he is focused on the mechanism for accessing Iran’s frozen assets – now seen as the last major dispute between Tehran and Washington.
According to his allies, accumulated mistrust means no further talks on the future of the Strait or the nuclear programme can take place without the upfront transfer of Iran’s frozen funds.
A Qatari breakthrough – and a last-minute American veto
Consultations in Qatar have led to progress on the frozen assets issue, but one Iranian MP, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, said that a plan to transfer $12bn from Qatar to a Russian account before onward transmission to Iran had been scuppered by the US at the last minute. He warned that if war resumes, Iran knows the locations of hotels in Doha and Dubai used by leading Trump negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff – and “next time they will be targeted”.
Beyond the issue of Iran’s frozen assets, Tehran is trying to strengthen a clause obliging Israel to observe a ceasefire in Lebanon. With Israel acknowledging it is conducting operations north of the “yellow line” to intercept Hezbollah rockets, the war appears to be escalating rather than ending. On Tuesday evening, the Israeli military issued two new evacuation warnings for residents of 19 villages in southern Lebanon, expanding its ground operations deeper into Lebanese territory.
Hours later, Lebanon’s health ministry reported that Israeli strikes had killed 31 people and wounded 40 in the preceding hours.
The new Supreme Leader’s confident prediction
Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei – who succeeded his father, killed by US-Israeli strikes on the day the war began – declared that the tide of history was turning in Iran’s favour. In a statement marking the start of the Hajj, he called for unity among Muslim nations.
Khamenei, who has not appeared in public or released any audio recordings since his elevation in March, radiated confidence as he predicted the destruction of Israel by 2040: “What is certain is that the hands of the clock will not turn back, and the peoples and lands of the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases. The United States will no longer have a safe haven for its atrocities and military bases in the region; instead, it will find itself ever more distanced from its former status.”
He added: “The wobbling Zionist regime and the cancerous tumour of Israel are approaching the final stages of their miserable existence.” His remarks underscored the widely ridiculed statement by Trump – ridiculed across the region and the world – that Arab states, as well as Turkey and Iran, should normalise relations with Israel.
