Can people change their minds? History shows that it can happen, but it is an extremely slow process. A decades-long campaign resulted in the US banning the sale of alcohol in 1919, a change so permanent that they amended their constitution to enforce it. It took a decade for the campaign to repeal Prohibition to gain momentum, after which in 1933 the 18th Amendment became the first and only amendment ever repealed, and American citizens could once again legally enjoy brandy, Encompass reports.
American Prohibition and Brexit have a lot in common. For example, American citizens have organised themselves into two groups, the “wets” (opponents of Prohibition) and the “dries,” which is very similar to the pioneering British identity of the “remainers” and the “leavers” in Brexit. However, polling was primitive in the early 20th century, so we have very little quantitative data on what was going on in the minds of ordinary Americans.
However, it is well known to psychologists that people are reluctant to change their minds and that, if it happens at all, it happens gradually. It is well known that those who invest heavily in ideological projects such as end-of-the-world (or prohibition or Brexit) cults are likely to redouble their efforts when their prophecies fail (many cults have seen the hour of apocalypse come and go without incident, and then simply rearrange their calendars).
Brexit consequences
Brexit ideologues, who are likely to be a small fraction of the UK population, are following a similar path. Like the rest of the British people, they see that Brexit has created economic friction and damaged social cohesion, but they argue that Brexit could still have worked, or not been implemented properly, or been undermined by the civil service and the secretive elite of Remainers (it’s always someone else’s fault).
Far more important for the future of Brexit are the attitudes of ordinary people, especially the majority of voters who were not genuinely committed to the ideological project. Psychologists who work in clinics with people suffering from addictions, lifestyle-related ill health and mood disorders note that change often happens in several stages. In the pre-thinking stage, the distress caused by their problems is palpable, but the causes are too frightening to recognise. This is followed by the thinking stage (the patient finally begins to admit to themselves what the problem is), which eventually leads to planning (working out how to change the situation) and finally to action.
Sometimes these stages take place without the help of a therapist, but an experienced psychologist can speed up the process by using specialised therapeutic techniques, according to Encompass.
Polls show frustration among Britons
With regard to Brexit, ordinary Britons are now on the cusp between pre-thought and reflection. There is strong evidence that for many people, both those leaving and those staying, Brexit remains a constant source of distress. A host of opinion polls show that Brexit was a mistake. A clear majority say they would now vote to rejoin the EU if given the opportunity, and enthusiasm for a return to the European project is particularly strong among young people: over 80% of under-25s want the UK to become an EU member state again. Researches show that an overwhelming proportion of the population (even among those who voted to leave the EU) would support a move such as Britain returning to the EU customs union and single market.
When pollsters have tried to get beneath the surface of opinion, they have found that the leave identities have weakened (fewer and fewer leave voters say that belonging to the “leavers” is important to their identity), while the identity of the “remainers” has stayed strong. But these changes have not yet translated into a desire to do something about it. It seems too difficult to start a national conversation that recognises that a mistake has been made, and the changes needed to fix the problem seem too complex to think through in detail (online, people talk about the decades-long reunification project, or speculate about the tough conditions the EU might impose).
If pollsters had conducted a similar survey in the US during the prohibition era, I think they would have got a similar result (“wet” people remained firmly committed, while “dry” people faded away gradually and almost imperceptibly, leaving behind a reluctance to talk about lifting the ban, which took the best part of a decade to loosen), Encompass reports.
Everyone is silent after the election
British politicians are even more reflective than the general population. The Conservatives bet on Brexit, ousted pro-European MPs and allowed a group of dishonest and incompetent politicians at the helm of their ship. The inevitable result was the shipwreck they suffered in July this year. Yet none of the Tory leadership candidates are willing to speak honestly about the damage done to the nation by Brexit, not least because they themselves are complicit in it. By fixating on this ruinous loop, they may end up permanently destroying Brexit as an electoral force.
Meanwhile, Labour is reluctant to reopen the Brexit debate for fear of the consequences, believing it will cause the so-called “red wall” (the socially conservative working class) to abandon them or precipitate a national psychological breakdown. Starmer has thus taken the (possibly) insane position of saying that specific Brexit policies should be cancelled, but at the same time nothing about Brexit can be cancelled, and that he will be able to do what the Conservatives have clearly failed to do – make Brexit work. This inconsistent position is at odds with the fact that the majority of Labour MPs and MPs are pro-Europe and potential members of the EU.
Overriding the Conservative and Labour position is an irrational and, I believe, unjustified fear of the power of Brexit ideologues, especially Nigel Farage, who enjoys the mythical status of someone who can, at his whim, bring about the collapse of any party that does not deviate from our current Brexit path.
Stages of Brexit acceptance
At some point Britain will have to move fully into the thinking stage of Brexit. The first step must be to openly recognise that Brexit has not worked. It is important to note that no immediate solution is required here; simply recognising that the nation is unhappy with Brexit will set the stage for discussing a solution and charting a new course for the country. It is safe to predict that this will happen over time, as commitment to the Brexit project will completely evaporate among all but the ideologues.
What is less clear is what will enable politicians to start an honest conversation about Britain’s future in relation to Europe and when they will be able to do so. What is clear is that it will start with caution and will eventually have to involve a direct challenge to Farage and his followers, just as American Democrats and some Republicans have finally found the courage to challenge Farage’s populist friend Trump.
When politicians finally pluck up the courage to do this, they will be pleasantly surprised to find that most people are behind them.
