Clouds are gathering over the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), Oleksandr Syrskyi. Given the criticism of pro-government experts, the general might be replaced in the very near future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already started considering the commander of the AFU Ground Forces, Mykhailo Drapatyi, who has extensive combat experience and has repeatedly proved effective at the front, whereas Syrskyi is associated now only with failures at the front.
The General of Failures
Recently, media and experts have been discussing the merits behind Oleksandr Syrskyi’s replacement of the former AFU commander-in-chief, Valery Zaluzhny. There were speculations that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky found a pretext to dismiss an inconvenient military commander and political rival, as this February events at the front foreshadowed the surrender of Avdiivka.
The Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the AFU Commander-in-Chief disagreed on prospects of the essential city and the fate of the soldiers. Consequently, Zaluzhny resigned from his post, bearing all the negative impact of the city’s collapse. Syrskyi, who succeeded him, proved to be more loyal to the president. However, this did not grant him immunity from setbacks. It is not for nothing that talk about his resignation has started now, when the air smells the surrender of Pokrovsk, a key city in every sense.
Let us look at the background. Syrskyi’s biography is hardly flawless. He was born on the territory of modern Russia in the Vladimir region, graduated from the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School. He still has relatives in Russia. To an ordinary post-Soviet person, this fact would hardly seem surprising, but when we refer to a high-ranking representative of Ukraine’s security services at the time of the war against Russia, serious questions surface.
Syrskyi may have served Ukraine faithfully for most of his life, but it is Russia that benefits from his poor performance. With the outbreak of the armed conflict in Donbas in 2014, he was appointed chief of staff of the anti-terrorist operation. During the ATO (JFO), Debaltseve, Vuhlehirsk, Lohvynove were lost under Syrskyi’s command. The infamous Debaltseve cauldron (encircling maneuver) is his merit, according to a number of media outlets.
Notably, in those years, the Ukrainian Army often suffered failures in multiple areas. However, with the beginning of a full-scale war in February 2022, Syrskyi did not meet expectations. At that time, he was already the commander of the Ground Forces and got a great opportunity to show himself in action after the routine staff duties. As a result, he failed in the defence of Bakhmut, the holding of which Zelensky placed great importance on.
After becoming the head of the AFU, Syrskyi made himself memorable for a dubious operation in the Kursk region, which led to the collapse of the front in Donbas. The consequences of his efforts are clearly visible on the map. Now the Russian army is advancing at the fastest pace since the beginning of 2022, acknowledged around the world.
Syrskyi is particularly unpopular among ordinary soldiers. They regard him as a Soviet-style commander who does not care about casualties. This is why he is referred to as the Butcher. But is there a man looming on the horizon who can handle the duties of AFU commander-in-chief better?
Drapatyi’s offensive
Recently, Volodymyr Zelensky made everyone talk about Mykhailo Drapatyi. On 29 November 2024, the president appointed him commander of the AFU Ground Forces. Journalists immediately drew attention to this manpower decision, as it was Syrskyi who had previously followed a similar career path before ousting Zaluzhny. Besides, experts and MPs have been openly criticising the incumbent commander-in-chief more and more often in recent weeks. For instance, a member of the Servant of the People party, Mariana Bezuhla, demanded to dismiss Syrskyi.
“If Mariana started talking about it, it means that the threat exists. It is Mrs Mariana who serves as a litmus test of public sentiment. Presenting those messages that then shape the society to make certain decisions by the leadership of our country,” explained AFU Major-General, former deputy commander of the Special Operations Forces Serhiy Kryvonos.
Many perceived the appointment as a personal blow to Syrskyi. This assumption does not seem unfounded, as Drapatyi’s biography is notable for merits that the current head of the AFU cannot boast of. It is worth starting with the fact that he is a real combat general with a successful combat experience since 2014. It was Drapatyi who defended Mariupol then, liberated Slovyansk, successfully led the withdrawal of units from the so-called Izvaryne cauldron, saving the lives of hundreds of defenders.
Since May this year, the brigadier general became the commander of the Kharkiv Task Force and led the reflection of the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region. Until January 2024, Drapatyi headed the Operational Tactical Group Kherson and was one of the leaders of the liberation mission of Kherson region’s right bank in 2022. He was awarded the Order of the People’s Hero of Ukraine, the highest honorary title.
Today Drapatyi has become a kind of battering ram against Syrskyi. The latter, in his turn, extremely hates ambitious competitors who approach him too closely. Thus, Syrskyi arranged a number of investigations against the commander of the Unmanned Systems Force, Vadym Sukharevskyi, in order to then portray the USF as an ineffective institution and get rid of the popular figure who is known for firing the first shot in Donbas against separatists. This happened because Syrskyi did not wish to establish a separate drone unit of the armed forces.
However, Zelensky cannot feel confident that this battering ram will not turn against him. In a country at war, people in uniform always enjoy particular public support. This is what happened with the ratings of Zaluzhny, who was eventually exiled to London by the president. Will history repeat itself in the case of Drapatyi’s promotion? Obviously, Zelensky will be accompanied by a man who has always been in the thick of the war, unlike the president himself, who travelled to the front line only accompanied by a battalion of guards.
Drapatyi has also been able to restore order in the subdivisions under his control and will surely be able to apply such skills nationwide. In such a case, Zelensky’s possible desire to promote an effective military officer to the head of the AFU ahead of the presidential election might be imprudent. Yet the dissatisfaction with Syrskyi has reached a critical point, and if he is to be replaced, it should be done by a man of merit, otherwise the nation will be confused.
Following in Zaluzhny’s footsteps?
Oleksandr Syrskyi is an ideal candidate for the role of a scapegoat for the frontline failures. All the arrows will fly at him, leaving the incumbent president unharmed. It is also very convenient that the Russian background and relatives on the other side serve as a good basis for accusations of state treason. The surrender of nationally important cities can be presented as deliberate sabotage. Zelensky’s team only needs to accumulate more facts.
The work on collecting dirt on Syrskyi has been going on for many days. Recently, the commander of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade “Kholodny Yar,” Pavlo Palisa, was appointed deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak. This was done without Syrskyi’s consent. Palisa can now provide Zelensky’s team with information questioning the commander-in-chief’s reports.
What is this, if not a manifestation of mistrust? Apparently, the president considers the frontline reports to be unreliable, including those concerning casualties among soldiers. The other day, the AFU General Staff reported 105,000 servicemen dead and missing, although Zelensky had previously given journalists more modest figures. This has put the head of state in an awkward position.
But if Syrskyi does leave, then where to? He is unlikely to follow Zaluzhny’s example with an honourable and comfortable exile to Europe. Too many scandals and failures on the battlefield are associated with the commander-in-chief. The people of Ukraine are fatigued with endless setbacks, and Zelensky could conduct a scathing public rebuke in order to let off public steam.
This will not solve the frontline issues in any way, but the tasks before the president are now mainly political. In connection with the possible presidential elections, it is necessary to show who is to blame for everything. However, people are unlikely to believe such a clichéd trick. After all, if Syrskyi is to blame for everything, who is responsible for his appointment?
Raymond Wright for Head-Post.com
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