Elon Musk, the founder of SpaceX, has set an ambitious timeline for human landings on Mars. He believes the first crewed missions could happen as early as 2029, though 2031 is a more likely target. Musk’s goal of colonising Mars remains central to his vision of making humanity a multi-planetary species.
SpaceX’s ambitious timeline for Mars landings
Musk shared his plans on social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter), saying, “Starship will depart for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus. If those landings go well, human landings could start as soon as 2029, though 2031 is more likely.”
Starship is SpaceX’s super heavy-lift launch vehicle, designed to carry both cargo and passengers to distant destinations, including Mars. Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, will be part of the mission.
The announcement aligns with SpaceX’s 23rd anniversary. The company has grown rapidly since its founding. In 2006, it launched just one rocket. By 2023, that number had risen to 98, with 133 launches planned for 2024.
Challenges and doubts around Mars colonisation
Musk has often argued that humanity must become a multi-planetary species to secure its future. He sees a self-sustaining colony on Mars as key to protecting civilisation from risks like climate change and nuclear conflict.
However, not everyone shares Musk’s sense of urgency. Former US President Donald Trump has acknowledged public interest in space travel but suggested the government should focus on more immediate issues. NASA, too, has a slower approach. The agency expects human missions to Mars in the 2040s, a decade or more later than Musk’s target.
Mars poses many challenges, including freezing temperatures, barren landscapes, and dust storms that could last weeks. To survive, humans would need to adapt to a completely new way of life.
Internal doubts about the timeline
An investigation by Time magazine, which interviewed over 20 people familiar with SpaceX’s plans, found that many within the company doubt Musk will see a Martian colony in his lifetime. Some insiders believe Musk’s aggressive timeline pushes his team to work harder. Others suspect it could be an attempt to outpace Jeff Bezos and his space company, Blue Origin, which envisions humans living in large space stations throughout the solar system.
Internally, some have referred to SpaceX’s Mars colony plans as a “hype package.” Despite these doubts, Musk remains determined. The first step towards Mars is the successful launch and landing of Starship. If that happens, the next milestone will be crewed landings on the planet.
For Musk, Mars is more than just a business venture. In a 2019 interview with Time, he compared his motivation to a quote from The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy: “The universe is the answer. What are the questions?”
