Right-wing parties have made significant gains in the European Parliament elections. According to the first results provided by the EU, far-right parties will dominate the transnational parliament, while the Greens were the hardest hit.
French President Emmanuel Macron suffered a crushing defeat in exit polls, while Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party won a convincing victory that underlines her credibility as a candidate for the French presidency in 2027.
According to the first exit polls, the National Rally party won about 32 per cent of the vote, 10 points more than in the last EU elections in 2019, and about 17 points ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s party.
In Germany, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came second behind the opposition Conservatives with 16.5 per cent of the vote, up from 11 per cent in 2019, according to exit polls released by public broadcaster ARD. The Greens lost the most in Germany on Sunday, dropping 8.6 percentage points to 11.9 per cent. Voters penalised them for the cost of policies to cut CO2 emissions – in line with expectations for environmental parties across Europe.
National Rally president Jordan Bardella said:
“Emmanuel Macron is a weakened president, already deprived of an absolute majority in the French parliament and now restricted in his means of action within the European Parliament. The President of the Republic must choose to follow the spirit of the institutions, solemnly take note of this new political situation, return to the French people and organise new legislative elections.”
French Socialist MEP Raphaël Glucksmann said:
“The far right in France today represents 40 per cent of the vote in France. Across Europe, we are witnessing a wave that is profoundly shaking our democracies.”
Netherlands, Austria and Greece count the votes
In the Netherlands, where voting took place on Thursday, polls showed that nationalist Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration party would win seven of the 29 seats in the EU assembly, just one less than the alliance of the Social Democrats and Greens.
Meanwhile in Austria, the right-wing Freedom Party is the likely winner of the vote, according to a poll conducted over the past week and released after polls closed on Sunday night.
After the polls closed in Greece, the first exit polls show the ruling New Democracy party in first place with between 28 and 32 per cent. The Greek Solution party is gaining between 7.6 and 10 per cent, while the ultra-conservative Niki is on top with between 2.9 and 4.9 per cent.
Early implications of the election results
Belgium’s Prime Minister Alexander De Croo announced his resignation after being defeated in the European elections, according to Belgian media. His announcement came after a significant loss of his party, Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats (Open VLD), which won only 5.9 per cent of the vote.
Spanish exit polls show Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) vying for the top spot with the conservative Popular Party (PP).
According to a poll by Danish national TV channel DR, SF, the Socialist People’s Party, which in English is called the Green Left, will get the most votes – 18.4 per cent – and three of the 15 Danish seats in the European Parliament.
In Copenhagen, the centrist coalition government has lost almost 15% of the vote in the two years since the last election, while in Tallinn, Kaja Kallas’s centrist ruling party is in crisis after coming third but won’t call a snap election.
Pro-European coalition is still in place
On the other hand, the new balance in the EU parliament shows that a stable pro-European coalition is a realistic scenario, despite the rise of the far-right across Europe.
The centre-right EPP, the EU Socialists and the liberal Renewal could form a majority of 403 seats.
The election result raises the possibility that the EPP candidate Ursula von der Leyen will be re-elected as head of the EU Commission. Christopher Glück, managing director at the political analysis firm Forefront Advisers, told Euractiv:
“The majority of the centrist three looks pretty solid […] probably ahead of 410 seats.”
Glück also said that von der Leyen no longer needed the support of Meloni or ECR for re-election to the Commission and that negotiations between the EPP, S&D and Renew would now be “straightforward.”
The EU Socialists have said they will not support von der Leyen if there is any co-operation with ECR or Meloni. The analyst also added:
“I expect there will be quite a lot in the Draghi report that EU socialists will like, especially in the economy, as well as they will ask for reassurances about the rule of law […] while liberal Renew will seek commitments about better regulation.”
Will von der Leyen hold onto power
An S&D source contacted by Euractiv said that von der Leyen would indeed have no problem getting a majority in the EU parliament.
However, the source said, they should first wait for EU leaders to decide, as the 2019 EU elections set a precedent where Manfred Weber came first but was not elected Commission President.
This year’s European Parliament elections are the first since Britain left the EU. In total, more than 360 million Europeans could vote in the election of 720 MEPs. This year’s vote was closely watched around the world. It is predicted that a strong electoral performance by the far-right could reshape alliances in parliament and dramatically change the future of the entire European Union.
