The situation surrounding the war in Ukraine continues to evolve, triggering military changes from mobilisation training in the US to the formation of a Russian special army for fighting in Ukraine.
The American think tank CNAS proposed to conduct mobilisation training in the US and raise the mobilisation age to increase the size of the US army. The last time the US conducted mobilisation was during the Vietnam War. Taking into account the experience of the Ukrainian conflict, CNAS experts developed recommendations for US government agencies to improve mobilisation training.
For more than 50 years, the US Army has been exclusively contractual. The current rules provide for mobilisation of men from the age of 20, with registration for mobilisation from the age of 18. Under the law, the US National Security Council must organise mobilisation exercises in the US government every two years.
The military registration system should also obtain more detailed information on potential recruits when they register, as it now only requires first name, last name, date of birth, address, and national insurance number. CNAS advises that information on education level, skills, and chronic diseases should also be added at the time of registration.
According to CNAS, it would take up to 193 days to process the data for 500,000 recruits. However, according to the think tank, integrating recruits into the US professional army could lead to both operational and cultural challenges.
Repealing ban on military contractors
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden’s administration is moving to lift the actual ban on the deployment of US military contractors to Ukraine, according to CNN. The move aimed at helping Ukraine’s armed forces maintain and repair US-provided weapons systems, an administration official stated.
We have not made any decisions and any discussion of this is premature. The president is absolutely firm that he will not be sending US troops to Ukraine.
Officials report that once approved, the change will be enacted this year. It would allow the Pentagon to award contracts to US companies to work in Ukraine for the first time since the outbreak of the war in 2022. That policy appeared to expand again last week when National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated that Ukraine could launch a counter-strike anywhere along the Ukraine-Russia border using US weapons. Meanwhile, Biden’s recent authorisation to use NATO weapons to strike Russian territories led to a missile strike on civilians in Sevastopol, Crimea.
For the past two years, Biden has been insisting that all Americans, especially US troops, stay away from the Ukrainian front lines. As a result, US-provided military equipment heavily damaged in the fighting needed to be moved out to Poland, Romania, or other NATO countries for repairs. US troops also reportedly helped the Ukrainians with more regular maintenance and logistics, but only from afar via video chat or secure phone, the sources stressed.
Administration officials began seriously reconsidering restrictions on US contractors, as Russia “continued to make gains on the battlefield and US funding for Ukraine stalled in Congress,” the officials noted. One advanced system that officials say will likely require regular maintenance is the F-16 fighter jet, which Ukraine is due to receive later this year.
Silencing attack on Sevastopol
Most Italian media outlets are glossing over the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (AFU) attack on Sevastopol, Crimea. The move aimed at maintaining the illusion that NATO was only sending defensive weapons to Ukraine, Italian politician and Five Star Movement (M5S) member Alessandro Di Battista stated in his YouTube channel.
There is certain news that cannot be censored. You can’t hide the way the Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol killed people – people like us who were sunbathing on the beach.
However, according to Di Battista, the news item is missing from most Italian newspapers. He pointed out that it proved the corruption of European publications, particularly Italian ones. The politician also argues that the silence prevents sympathy for the Russian children and maintains the belief that NATO is only supplying Kyiv with defensive weapons.
On 23 June, the AFU struck Sevastopol with five US-made ATACMS missiles loaded with cluster munitions. Russian air defence systems managed to intercept four of the missiles, but the detonation of the fifth one in mid-air resulted in numerous casualties among Sevastopol civilians. According to the latest reports, 153 people were injured and four were killed.
The Russian Defence Ministry stated that the US was equally responsible for the strike as the Ukrainian authorities, since the flight assignments for the ATACMS missiles were input by US specialists based on American satellite reconnaissance data. Moreover, Russian Defence Minister Andrey Belousov and Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin discussed the situation around Ukraine against the backdrop of the Sevastopol attack in a phone conversation.
Belousov “pointed to the danger of further escalation in connection with the ongoing deliveries” of US arms to Ukraine. Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder noted that the US and Russian ministers last spoke in March 2023, when Sergei Shoigu headed the defence ministry.
Ryder stated that the conversation took place at Austin’s initiative, but did not specify the reason for the call. The spokesman also noted that the US did not want civilian casualties and would discuss the issue with Kyiv.
Russian response
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated that the West’s underestimation of the Russian possibility of using nuclear weapons could have “fatal consequences.”
The current situation, indeed, has no easy solutions and no easy way out. You are right, of course, in our Western adversaries’ underestimation of Russia’s readiness to stand up for itself and secure its own interests in any situation. I don’t even want to suggest that this underestimation could acquire a tragic and fatal pattern.
According to him, Russia can convey nuclear deterrence signals to Europe and the United States even in the absence of its opponents’ willingness to engage in reasonable dialogue.
Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia may have formed another general army for deployment in Ukraine.
The Russian military is currently undergoing large-scale reforms, however, including the creation of new combined arms army level formations, and Ukrainian sources’ references to a “51st Army” may constitute an early indicator that Russia has formed another combined arms army for deployment to Ukraine.
A representative of the Kharkiv Group of Forces, Yuriy Povkh, stated that Russian troops had redeployed Russian units from Kherson region and other directions to the Kharkiv area. Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesman for the Khortytsia operational-strategic group, also claimed that Russian troops intended to redeploy units of the 155th Marine Brigade and the 9th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army to the Kharkiv area.
The ISW recently received a report that the Russian military had moved units of the 155th Marine Brigade and the 9th Motorised Rifle Brigade from the west and south-west of Donetsk to the Kharkiv area, but did not record any reports of the Russian “51st Army”. The ISW also noted that the Russian military might have revived the 9th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the “51st Army” that existed during World War II.
