The most striking aspect of the results of the European elections in the 27-country Union is the crushing defeat of incumbent presidents in the largest EU member states: France and Germany. While their failure was expected, its aftermath could leave Europe weak and ineffective against the backdrop of the military conflict in Ukraine.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron responded to the poor results of his Renaissance party by calling a snap election for June 30 – less than two weeks before the Nato summit in Washington.
The logic behind his decision is simple: it is better to oppose Jordaan Bardella’s Rassemblement Nationale (RND) now than in 2027. With a higher turnout and a different voting system that disadvantages controversial and extremist candidates, Macron hopes for one of two scenarios.
In the first case, he will demonstrate that the Nationalists’ triumph was an isolated incident and not a model that can be replicated in national elections. In the second case, the nationalists will become victims of their untimely success. If they were to lead a government or join a governing coalition during Macron’s presidency, it would be more difficult for them to act as bomb throwers and denounce Macron’s legacy by the time he leaves office.
However, this plan conflicts with Macron’s plan to act as Europe’s leader in perilous times. At best, the Renaissance will get a smaller majority than the one it has now. At worst, the RN will lead France’s next cabinet. Somewhere in between are scenarios involving horse trading and compromises between forces that want a Ukrainian victory and nationalists who have long co-operated with Russia. Even if France’s constitution favours the president on foreign and defence policy, a weak or non-existent governing majority would weaken Macron’s influence internationally.
Scholz’s defeat
The results of the German Social Democratic Party (13.9 per cent, or 14 seats in a 96-seat delegation) may not look disastrous by the standards of the last election, when the SPD won just 16 seats and came third, but these results are still well behind the historical norm. In 2014, by contrast, the party won more than 27 per cent of the vote in European elections, winning as many as 27 seats in the legislature. Even more depressing is the fact that Olaf Scholz’s party is now lagging behind Alternative for Germany, which the French RN leadership has deemed too extreme.
Coupled with the electoral failure of the Greens, Scholz’s coalition partner, this result virtually nullifies the chancellor’s status as a “lame duck” until the federal elections in autumn 2025. By then, a new government led by the Christian Democrats could provide a much-needed respite, especially given Friedrich Merz’s lip service to Atlanticism and the Ukrainian cause, but that prospect is distant and uncertain.
A British or French-style snap election could clarify the situation, but this is also unlikely given Germany’s political culture. Instead, the German cabinet will walk around like a dead man for the next 16 months, with no initiative of its own, much less the will to adapt German defence to a new era in which hard power matters.
Russia’s defence industry at the top
Russia is about three times ahead of the West in the production of artillery shells. Scholz or Macron should not be expected to throw significant resources at the problem. The supplemental measures bill passed by the US Congress helps, but it may also be the last of its kind. Macron should be given credit for pushing ahead with the delivery of Mirage fighter jets to be delivered alongside F-16s from the Netherlands, Belgium and elsewhere, but it’s hard to see how he or Scholz will become bolder in their Ukrainian posturing in the coming months.
It’s even worse when you consider the likely turning points associated with a possible Trump presidency. Most important is the prospect of a deal with Putin going over the heads of Europeans – and especially Ukrainians. The “Chancellor of the World” Germany may even welcome such a division. Macron may be against it in principle, but probably can’t do much about it – especially with an RN-dominated national assembly and cabinet.
Implications of the elections for Kyiv
The European elections may seem a minor event, leaving the European Parliament and the future Commission in the hands of the same centrist pan-European coalition, even if the “far right” made modest gains. But such a conclusion is an example of a flawed composition. Behind the apparent stability of the overall situation lies a host of successive political changes at the national level, not least the dramatic weakening of the two main engines driving virtually all European politics: Berlin and Paris. Europeans, and Ukrainians in particular, may not like the coming consequences.
Rheinmetall development in Ukraine
Meanwhile, Rheinmetall, the global defence giant, has opened its first joint venture in Ukraine to repair and manufacture armoured vehicles, Defence Blog reports.
The venture is part of a partnership with Ukrainian state defence conglomerate Ukroboronprom aimed at strengthening the country’s military resilience and self-sufficiency.
The new plant is designed to accelerate the repair and production of German-made military vehicles, which will enhance Ukraine’s ability to maintain and deploy its armoured fleet. The partnership will not only accelerate the restoration of military vehicles, but will also allow for the eventual production of new equipment for Ukraine’s security and defence forces by Ukrainian specialists. Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s Minister for Strategic Industries, said:
This collaboration is a crucial step in integrating Ukrainian defence capabilities into the broader European defence framework, contributing to collective security in the European Union. The opening of this joint facility with Rheinmetall is a stride towards victory for Ukraine and a significant milestone in building the Arsenal of the Free World.
The facility, staffed by Ukrainian specialists under the technical direction of Rheinmetall representatives, is expected to enhance the combat readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces by providing rapid repair and maintenance services directly in Ukraine. Dmytro Klimenkov, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defence, said:
The opening of the first joint service center with Rheinmetall in Ukraine is critical for bolstering our defence capabilities. This will ensure quick repairs and maintenance of German equipment on Ukrainian soil, significantly increasing the effectiveness of our armed forces.
David Lomdzharia, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Ukroboronprom, emphasised the importance of this partnership:
Developing a partnership with a leading global defence manufacturer like Rheinmetall reflects the high level of trust Ukroboronprom has earned from its Western counterparts. This trust results from the diligent work in developing our competencies, implementing corporate governance reforms, and building an anti-corruption infrastructure. These factors collectively make our company and its enterprises competitive, transparent, and attractive to foreign partners.
This project is part of a wider programme of cooperation with Rheinmetall, creating new opportunities for the Ukrainian defence forces. It ensures that equipment is quickly returned to operational status after repair and maintenance. Herman Smetanin, General Director of Ukroboronprom, said:
The fact that this is happening in Ukraine demonstrates the confidence our international partners have in us, our professionalism, and the high potential of our domestic defence industry.
Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall AG, highlighted the strategic importance of the venture:
It is crucial for us to provide effective and reliable support to Ukraine. When it comes to supplying spare parts, our priority is ensuring maximum availability and rapid replenishment. To achieve this, we utilise existing channels of original manufacturers, process materials ourselves and with partners, and restore original supply chains while integrating local production in Ukraine.
The German-Ukrainian joint venture “Rheinmetall Ukrainian Defence Industry LLC” (RHEINMETALL UDI) was officially registered on October 18, 2023, in Ukraine.
