The European Union should offer Trump a deal on Ukraine that he cannot refuse – according to Politico.
While US President Joe Biden and his predecessor currently have an equal chance of winning the polls, Europe is waking up to the realisation that Donald Trump may well retake the White House.
Europe’s biggest fear is that the Republican frontrunner could cut US support for Ukraine, as Republicans in Congress are already blocking $24 billions in new aid to Ukraine, and after 7 October it is believed that aid to Kyiv could have a negative impact on Israel’s success.
You know what I’ll say? I’ll say this. I want Europe to put up more money… They think we’re a bunch of jerks. We’re spending $170 billion for faraway land, and they are right next door to that land and they’re in for 20. I don’t think so, Trump said when asked if he believes either side in the Ukraine-Russia conflict will win.
European leaders realise that in the short term Europe will not be able to replace the weapons, intelligence and diplomatic support Kyiv receives from the U.S.
However, the financial benefits are the only thing that could sway Trump to Europe’s side, and it should take advantage of this focus on money to secure aid for Ukraine, and announce a multi-year purchase of US weapons for Kyiv.
Covering American spending to support Ukraine would cost Europe about €45 billions a year. That’s 0.3% of the European Union’s GDP, or roughly the difference between NATO’s 2% target and what Germany has actually spent on defence over the past two years.
So if Trump wins next November, Brussels will naturally switch to talking about money anyway. In case Biden is re-elected, Republicans will probably end up controlling at least one US legislative chamber.
Regardless of the outcome of the 2024 election, Europe would be well-advised to work on strengthening its own defence capabilities and industry.
