The European Union is poised to achieve a 54% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030—just shy of its legally binding 55% target—according to the European Commission’s assessment of updated national climate plans, according to Politico.
The progress marks a significant improvement from earlier projections, which warned of a shortfall. “When we play our cards and instruments in a smart manner, we deliver as a continent,” declared EU Climate Chief Teresa Ribera.
The EU’s trajectory reflects accelerated decarbonisation efforts across member states, with renewable energy expected to supply 41% of the bloc’s power by 2030, nearing the 42.5% target. The surge is largely driven by wind and solar investments, aligning with the REPowerEU strategy to curb reliance on imported fossil fuels.
Notably, the bloc spent €430 billion on these imports in 2023, funds the Commission argues “could be redirected to invest in the clean transition toward a more autonomous and secure EU.”
Despite overall momentum, Belgium, Estonia, and Poland have yet to submit updated climate plans. The Commission also highlighted sluggish progress on energy poverty mitigation and adaptation measures, with few nations addressing critical risks like water scarcity.
Long-term goals include failing carbon sinks, energy efficiency lag, and fossil fuel subsidies. Governments have largely ignored mandates to phase out fossil fuel subsidies. The Commission noted a list of existing subsidies, concrete timelines, and measures to phase them out are largely missing, perpetuating reliance on oil and gas.
Achieving the 2030 goals requires €570 billion annually in clean investments, €140 billion more than current spending. The Commission emphasised that redirecting fossil fuel expenditures could bridge this gap, citing the €21.9 billion spent on Russian fossil fuels in 2023-2024 alone.
With the EU preparing to adopt a 2040 target of 90% emissions cuts, the Commission faces pressure to resist “flexibility” loopholes. Climate NGOs warn against relying on international carbon credits or overestimating carbon removals, citing past failures where such measures crashed carbon prices and delayed domestic action.
