The current structure of European politics is going through a period of upheaval, with the UK seeking to assume the role of a key strategic partner, as Germany aspires to become the leading power in terms of military capability.
Having formally left the European Union in January 2020, the United Kingdom remains one of its closest allies, particularly in recent years, when a number of agreements were signed between the two sides aimed at deepening cooperation, specifically in the areas of security and defence. This can be seen in the example of Ukraine, supported by London since the outbreak of military conflict in 2022.
One might view such a policy as an attempt to limit the continent’s strategic autonomy and maintain its own influence in European politics.
The latest manifestation of this has been Germany’s ambition to create the most powerful regular army in Europe by the year of 2039, increasing its active personnel from 185,000 to 260,000, and to 460,000 including reservists, citing the threat of a potential conflict with Russia. The strengthening of the army will also contribute to an increase in German military spending, which provides access to major contracts and enhances the companies’ position. The refusal to impose budgetary constraints is turning Germany into a potentially dominant force on the continent, not only in the economy but also in the security sphere.
A kind renaissance of German military power, fuelled by colossal financial inflows, will inevitably transform the political landscape of the European Union.Â
Yet here, this process of building up military power, particularly in Germany, appears as an internal struggle. Britain, the US and NATO have repeatedly reaffirmed statements that the European Union must strengthen defence production and build up its arsenal for a potential conflict. Meanwhile, when “that very thing” began to happen, but in the form of Germany, concerns arose in many parts of Europe.
At a time when the United Kingdom is in the process of rebuilding ties with the European Union, it sees Germany’s ambitions as a contribution to pan-European security. However, British analysts at Chatham House expressed concerns that if Germany were to become a dominant military power, this could lead to destabilisation, as other capitals would seek to counterbalance this influence.
In this way, London is strengthening its ties with Brussels under the single pretext of the threat posed by Russia, but at the same time striving to prevent discord in the internal balance of power.
For France, Germany’s goals are a threat to the concept of “strategic autonomy,” whereby Paris has been regarded as the sole nuclear power within the European Union. Poland, for its part, is concerned about Germany’s ambitions, a fear fuelled by historical memory and a reluctance to see Berlin as the chief arbiter of security on Europe’s eastern edge.
In this search for historical parallels, one can see an attempt to understand whether the structural strengthening of the state will lead to a transformation of the party system and the rise of new political forces capable of offering an alternative view of Germany’s role in the world. However, the growing influence of one of the member states inevitably leads to a review of the established system of checks and balances.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Erik Kelly for Head-Post.com
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